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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan (JESP)
Ghozali Maski
Brawijaya University
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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The Mundell-Fleming Trilemma Combination on Middle-Income Countries Rinny Apriliany Zakaria; Ghozali Maski; Putu Mahardika Adi Saputra; Ahmed Mohamed Annegrat
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan Vol 15, No 1 (2023)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17977/um002v15i12023p050

Abstract

The Mundell-Fleming trilemma hypothesis stated that a country could not simultaneously achieve exchange rate stability, financial integration, and monetary independence. The fixed exchange rate policy, free capital mobility, and monetary independence are trade-offs and impossible to run simultaneously. This research aims to identify the combination of the Mundell-Fleming trilemma formed in middle-income countries. Using the panel ARDL model, we found that the Mundell-Fleming trilemma tends to converge in the short run. While on the long run, middle-income countries tend to choose monetary independence and financial integration, resulting in a less stable exchange rate, as mentioned in the hypothesis
Systemic Risk Analysis Using Conditional Value at Risk (CoVaR) Model: Study of Conventional Banks in Indonesia Rihana Sofie Nabella; Ghozali Maski; Setyo Tri Wahyudi
Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan Vol 12, No 1 (2020)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.17977/um002v12i12020p057

Abstract

This study aims to measure systemic risk in conventional commercial banks in Indonesia with the Conditional Value at Risk (CoVaR) model developed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2009). The financial crises of 1998 and 2008 have become valuable lessons for Indonesian banks to always maintain financial system stability because the impact caused by systemic risks is very large. Systemic risk is the possibility of instability due to contagion in some or all of the financial system. This study uses a sample of 6 conventional commercial banks in Indonesia from January 2012 to December 2018. The results obtained from this study is the systemic risk is not related to the size of banks. Each bank has a negative externality so that it can cause a bank rush and systemic impact.
Co-Authors Ahmed Mohamed Annegrat Putu Mahardika Adi Saputra Rihana Sofie Nabella Rinny Apriliany Zakaria Setyo Tri Wahyudi