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All Journal JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics-IJCSAM
Ginzel, Bryan Given Christiano
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Mathematics

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Analyzing the Influence of Gross Domestic Product on the Human Development Index Worldwide in 2021 Using a Nonparametric Regression Approach Based on Penalized Spline Estimator Amelia, Dita; Zhafira, Azizah Atsariyyah; Ginzel, Bryan Given Christiano; Putra, Fery Yulian; Wibawa, Yoga Setya
(IJCSAM) International Journal of Computing Science and Applied Mathematics Vol. 11 No. 2 (2025)
Publisher : LPPM Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j24775401.ijcsam.v11i2.8851

Abstract

People’s welfare is a universal goal that is the main focus of all countries in the world. One of the indicators used to measure welfare is the Human Development Index (HDI), which includes education, health and per capita income. On the other hand, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the main measure of a region’s economic growth. This research aims to highlight how regional economic dynamics affect human welfare in the world in 2021 and the data source was obtained from OurWorldInData. This research uses nonparametric regression with a penalized spline estimator approach. Penalized Spline analysis shows that the best model for predicting HDI based on GDP per capita is to use 2 knot points, namely k1=8000 and k2=50000. This model produces a Mean Squared Error (MSE) value of 0.0018 and Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) of 0.0019. In addition, this model has the ability to explain response variability of R2=91.58%. The grouping of countries by GDP per capita reveals that economic improvement impacts human development differently across income levels. By tailoring strategies to specific income groups, policymakers can more effectively enhance human development outcomes, fostering a more equitable and prosperous society
Exchange Rate Prediction of BRICS Countries against US Dollar Based on Multiresponse Fourier series Estimator Mardianto, M. Fariz Fadillah; Maulidya, Utsna Rosalin; Ginzel, Bryan Given Christiano; Putra, Mochamad Rasyid Aditya; Pusporani, Elly; Miswan, Nor Hamizah
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 10, No 2 (2026): April
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v10i2.36983

Abstract

The dominance of the US dollar (USD) as the global reserve currency has begun to face structural challenges since the 2007-2008 financial crisis, which triggered the strengthening of the BRICS alliance. Although this alliance now controls 35% of the world's GDP and is actively pursuing de-dollarization, analysis of the volatility of their collective currencies is often limited to univariate parametric models that fail to capture inter-country dependencies and complex periodic fluctuation patterns. This study aims to fill this gap by applying a nonparametric multiresponse Fourier series regression to simultaneously model the interdependence of the five major BRICS currencies against the USD. Using weekly secondary data from June 2009 to February 2025 (817 observations) from investing.com, this study positions time as the predictor and the exchange rates of the five BRICS currencies as the response. The analysis results show that the best estimation model is obtained through a sine function without a trend component with an optimal oscillation parameter k=1, based on a minimum Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) value of 0.000702363. The prediction results from the training data produce a MAPE value of 4.7521%, which classifies the analysis as highly accurate. These findings strategically support the validation of the de-dollarization movement, providing a predictive instrument for developing countries to reduce their dependence on the USD, as well as strengthening the bargaining position of Eastern economies in a more multipolar international financial order.
Co-Authors Dita Amelia, Dita Elly Pusporani M. Fariz Fadillah Mardianto Maulidya, Utsna Rosalin Miswan, Nor Hamizah Putra, Fery Yulian Putra, Mochamad Rasyid Aditya Wibawa, Yoga Setya Zhafira, Azizah Atsariyyah