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All Journal Scientific Journal of Engineering Research Methods in Science and Technology Studies
Sokoya, Oludare
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Engineering

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Interpretable Academic Outcome Prediction Using Explainable Boosting Machines Oise, Godfrey Perfectson; Uloko, Felix Oshiorenoya; Pius, Kevin Chinedu; Eferoba–Idio, Enovwo; Edobor, Michael Uyiosa; Mintah, Evans; Ukpebor, Osahon; Sokoya, Oludare; Jessa, Tejiri
Methods in Science and Technology Studies Vol. 2 No. 1 (2026): June Article in Process
Publisher : PT. Teknologi Futuristik Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.64539/msts.v2i1.2026.441

Abstract

Predictive analytics has become an important component of learning analytics in higher education, enabling institutions to identify academic risks and support student success through data-driven decision making. However, many existing academic outcome prediction models rely on complex black-box machine learning techniques that provide high predictive performance but limited transparency and interpretability. The lack of explainability restricts the practical adoption of such models in educational environments where accountability, trust, and ethical decision-making are essential. This study proposes an interpretable machine learning framework for multi-class academic outcome prediction using the Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM), a glass-box model that combines the predictive power of ensemble boosting with the transparency of generalized additive models. The proposed framework was evaluated using a publicly available Student Performance and Learning Behavior dataset consisting of 6,519 student records containing academic, behavioral, and demographic attributes. Academic outcomes were formulated as a four-class classification task: Distinction, Pass, Fail, and Withdrawn. Model performance was assessed using multiple evaluation metrics including accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and ROC–AUC analysis. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed EBM model achieves an accuracy of 88% and an overall ROC–AUC score of 0.91, indicating strong predictive capability across outcome categories. Furthermore, the model provides native interpretability through feature contribution functions and SHAP-based explanations, enabling both global and instance-level understanding of predictions. The results demonstrate that reliable academic outcome prediction can be achieved without sacrificing interpretability, providing a transparent and trustworthy decision-support framework for educational analytics.
Isolation Forest–Based Intrusion Detection for Cyber-Physical Systems Oise, Godfrey Perfectson; Konyeha, Susan; Uloko, Felix Oshiorenoya; Pius, Kevin Chinedu; Eferoba–Idio, Enovwo; Edobor, Michael Uyiosa; Mintah, Evans; Ukpebor, Osahon; Sokoya, Oludare; Jessa, Tejiri
Scientific Journal of Engineering Research Vol. 2 No. 2 (2026): June Article in Process
Publisher : PT. Teknologi Futuristik Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.64539/sjer.v2i2.2026.434

Abstract

Cyber-physical engineering systems (CPES) form the backbone of critical infrastructures such as power generation, industrial automation, and water treatment facilities. Because cyber intrusions in these environments can directly disrupt physical processes, reliable intrusion detection mechanisms are essential for maintaining operational safety and system resilience. However, many existing intrusion detection approaches rely on supervised learning techniques that require large volumes of labeled attack data, which are rarely available in real industrial environments. In addition, advanced detection methods often introduce significant computational overhead, limiting their practicality for deployment in resource-constrained cyber-physical systems. To address these challenges, this study proposes a one-class anomaly detection framework based on the Isolation Forest algorithm for monitoring cyber-physical engineering systems. The proposed approach learns the statistical distribution of normal operational behavior using multivariate sensor, actuator, and control signals, and identifies deviations from this learned pattern as potential cyber intrusions. The framework is evaluated using the Hardware-in-the-Loop–based Augmented Industrial Control System (HAI) Security Dataset, which provides realistic industrial process measurements under both normal and attack scenarios. Experimental results show that the model achieves overall accuracy (0.89) and strong performance in identifying normal operational states (F1-score = 0.94). However, attack detection shows moderate recall (0.48) but low precision (0.04) due to class imbalance and overlapping anomaly score distributions. These findings indicate that Isolation Forest serves as a computationally efficient baseline anomaly detection mechanism for real-time CPS monitoring, while highlighting the need for hybrid and temporally aware detection strategies to improve attack discrimination in industrial cyber-physical environments.
Co-Authors Edobor, Michael Uyiosa Eferoba–Idio, Enovwo Jessa, Tejiri Konyeha, Susan Mintah, Evans Oise, Godfrey perfectson Pius, Kevin Chinedu Ukpebor, Osahon Uloko, Felix Oshiorenoya