<![CDATA[Abstrak Penurunan stok karbon ekologis pada Daerah Aliran Sungai (DAS) yang mengalami tekanan urbanisasi menjadi tantangan besar dalam mencapai Net Zero Emission (NZE), yaitu kondisi ketika emisi gas rumah kaca yang dilepaskan seimbang dengan yang diserap. Hulu DAS Ciliwung, wilayah strategis yang menopang stabilitas hidrologi dan ekologis kawasan hilir, mengalami dinamika perubahan tutupan lahan yang intensif. Penelitian ini dilandasi oleh pertanyaan utama: Bagaimana distribusi perubahan tutupan lahan di Hulu DAS Ciliwung dari perspektif lingkungan? Penelitian dilakukan di Hulu DAS Ciliwung menggunakan citra Landsat periode 2000–2023 untuk menganalisis perubahan tutupan lahan dan distribusi stok karbon melalui konversi Above Ground Biomass (AGB) menjadi Above Ground Carbon (AGC) menggunakan faktor konversi 0,47. Analisis spasial digunakan untuk menilai dinamika tutupan lahan, tingkat fragmentasi vegetasi, serta mengidentifikasi area potensial sebagai zona prioritas karbon (Greenomic Carbon Zones). Hasil pemetaan menunjukkan pergeseran signifikan dari tutupan vegetasi menuju kawasan terbangun, mencakup penurunan luas tutupan hutan dan vegetasi campuran serta ekspansi permukiman. Fragmentasi vegetasi paling intens ditemukan pada koridor riparian dan zona ekspansi perkotaan. Estimasi stok karbon mengonfirmasi melemahnya kapasitas penyimpanan karbon ekologis akibat konversi lahan, meskipun peningkatan hutan lahan kering sekunder pada periode 2020–2023 memberikan tambahan stok karbon yang substansial. Temuan spasial menjadi dasar bagi penetapan Greenomic Carbon Zones sebagai wilayah prioritas konservasi dan restorasi vegetasi berbasis stok karbon. Hasil penelitian mendukung dua tujuan utama: (1) menganalisis distribusi spasial dan dinamika tutupan lahan Hulu DAS Ciliwung periode 2000–2023; dan (2) menetapkan dasar spasial pembentukan Greenomic Carbon Zones sebagai strategi dekarbonisasi berbasis ruang di tingkat DAS. Kerangka ini memperkuat perencanaan tata ruang rendah karbon dan pengembangan ekonomi hijau di kawasan hulu DAS.Abstract. The decline of ecological carbon stocks in watersheds undergoing urbanization pressure poses a major challenge in achieving Net Zero Emission (NZE) targets. The Upper Ciliwung Watershed, an ecologically strategic region supporting the hydrological and environmental stability of downstream areas, has experienced intensive land-cover transformation. This study is guided by the central research question: How is the spatial distribution of land-cover change in the Upper Ciliwung Watershed from an environmental perspective? The study was conducted in the Upper Ciliwung Watershed using Landsat imagery from 2000–2023 to analyze land-cover changes and carbon stock distribution through AGB–AGC conversion. Spatial analysis was applied to assess land-cover dynamics, vegetation fragmentation levels, and identify potential priority carbon zones (Greenomic Carbon Zones). The mapping results indicate a significant shift from vegetated land covers to built-up areas, including a reduction in forest and mixed vegetation as well as an expansion of settlements. Vegetation fragmentation was most intense along riparian corridors and urban expansion zones. Carbon stock estimation confirms a decline in ecological carbon storage capacity due to land conversion, although the expansion of secondary dryland forest in 2020–2023 contributed substantially to additional carbon stock. The spatial findings form the basis for establishing Greenomic Carbon Zones as priority areas for carbon-based vegetation conservation and restoration. The results support two main objectives: (1) analyzing the spatial distribution and dynamics of land-cover change in the Upper Ciliwung Watershed during 2000–2023; and (2) establishing a spatial foundation for the development of Greenomic Carbon Zones as a watershed-level, space-based decarbonization strategy. This framework strengthens low-carbon spatial planning and green economy development in the upstream region of the watershed.Submitted:2026-01-12 Revisions: 2026-02-18 Accepted:2026-03-02 Published:2026-03-11]]>
