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All Journal Jurnal Prajaiswara
Muhammad Rachmad R
Universitas Jambi, Jambi, Indonesia
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Environmental Science Social Sciences Other

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Determinants of the IDX BUMN20 Stock Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (A Macroeconomic Approach) Elisa Elisa; Muhammad Rachmad R; Rahma Nurjanah
Jurnal Prajaiswara Vol. 7 No. 1 (2026): April 2026
Publisher : Badan Pengembangan Sumber Daya Manusia (BPSDM) Provinsi Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55351/prajaiswara.v7i1.253

Abstract

Introduction/Main Objectives: This study aims to analyze the effects of interest rates, exchange rates, world oil prices, and inflation on the IDX BUMN20 during the 2019–2024 period. The IDX BUMN20 represents state-owned enterprise (SOE) stocks that play a strategic role in the national economy and, in recent years, have shown relatively lagging performance compared to the Composite Stock Price Index. Background Problems: The performance gap between the IDX BUMN20 and the Composite Stock Price Index indicates differences in sensitivity to macroeconomic dynamics, making it important to examine the short-run and long-run effects of macroeconomic variables on the index. Research Methods: The study uses monthly secondary time series data from 2019–2024 obtained from the Indonesia Stock Exchange, Bank Indonesia, Statistics Indonesia, and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data are analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Finding/Results: In the long run, the IDX BUMN20, interest rates, and world oil prices tend to have positive effects, while the exchange rate tends to have a negative effect in the initial period and inflation appears relatively weak. In the short run, the effects of the variables are dynamic and vary across lags. Conclusion: The findings confirm that the performance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), as reflected in the IDX BUMN20, is strongly influenced by macroeconomic conditions. Therefore, strengthening corporate governance, managing exchange rate and financing risks, and ensuring policy stability are essential to sustain the strategic role of SOEs as development agents and contributors to government revenue.
Determinants of Economic Growth in The Provinces of Sumatra Island Safitri Ayu Lestari; Muhammad Rachmad R; Erni Achmad
Jurnal Prajaiswara Vol. 7 No. 1 (2026): April 2026
Publisher : Badan Pengembangan Sumber Daya Manusia (BPSDM) Provinsi Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55351/prajaiswara.v7i1.257

Abstract

Introduction/Main Objectives: This study aims to analyze the determinants of economic growth in the provinces of Sumatra for the period 2020-2024, emphasizing the role of foreign direct investment (FDI), government spending, and human resource quality as measured by the Human Development Index (HDI), as well as formulating improvement strategies. Background Problems There is economic growth inequality among provinces in Sumatra, where the GRDP differs in each province even though this region is an important contributor to Indonesia's national economy. Research Methods: This study uses panel secondary data from 2020-2024 obtained from the World Bank, Ministry of Finance, Central Statistics Agency, and improvement strategies using the AHP model. Finding/Results: Government Expenditure (GE) and HDI have a significant positive effect on economic growth. Meanwhile, FDI has a probability value of 0.1481 > 0.05, meaning it does not significantly affect economic growth. Conclusion: The results of this study confirm that economic growth in Sumatra is more influenced by the effectiveness of government spending and the quality of human development than by the amount of foreign investment alone. Investment, fiscal, and human resource development policies are key to promoting more inclusive and sustainable economic growth in Sumatra.
Co-Authors Elisa Elisa Erni Achmad Rahma Nurjanah Safitri Ayu Lestari