Yani Prihantini Hiola
IPB University

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Evaluation of Tree-Based Models for Predicting Social Assistance Recipient Status Based on National Socio-Economic Survey (SUSENAS) 2024 Yani Prihantini Hiola; Zulhijrah; I Gusti Ngurah Sentana Putra; Syella Zignora Limba; Bagus Sartono; Aulia Rizki Firdawanti; Budi Susetyo; Gerry Alfa Dito
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 9 No. 1 (2026): Volume 09 Issue 01 (March 2026)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/xyyv0f37

Abstract

Abstract. Poverty is a major socioeconomic challenge in Indonesia that affects the effectiveness of social protection programs. In response to this challenge, the government has created social assistance programs to improve the welfare of the people. However, the distribution of social assistance is often considered to be inaccurate, resulting in households that are deemed eligible for social assistance not being identified as recipients. One solution to improve the accuracy of distribution is the application of machine learning in the context of classification. Several tree-based models, such as LightGBM, Random Forest, and XGBoost, were selected because of their superior capabilities compared to classical models such as logistic regression, especially in handling complex data and fulfilling model assumptions. This study compares the performance of these three models in predicting social assistance recipient status using data from the 2024 West Java Provincial National Socioeconomic Survey (SUSENAS). Model evaluation was conducted on several data pre-processing scenarios involving outlier handling, class balancing, and feature engineering. The results show that LightGBM consistently outperforms the other models on six metrics, namely Accuracy, Balanced Accuracy, F1-Score, ROC-AUC, PR-AUC, and Brier Score, out of a total of eight evaluation metrics used. SHAP analysis identifies Social Assistance History and Asset Score as the most influential features for model prediction. Friedman and Nemenyi nonparametric tests confirmed significant performance differences between LightGBM and other models based on the F1-Score, PR-AUC, and Brier Score metrics. These findings indicate that tree-based models, particularly LightGBM, can support the development of a more targeted and data-driven social assistance targeting system. Keywords: Social Assistance; Tree-Based; SHAP; SUSENAS; Hybrid Bayesian Optimization
Biclustering Performance of Iterative Signature Algorithm and Plaid Model after Imputation on Indonesian Macroeconomic Indicators Yani Prihantini Hiola; I Made Sumertajaya; Indahwati Indahwati
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 11, No 2 (2026): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v11i2.41933

Abstract

Biclustering is a two-way clustering method that identifies local patterns simultaneously across rows and columns of a data matrix. However, missing values may alter data structures and affect biclustering results. Studies evaluating the interaction between imputation methods and biclustering algorithms remain limited. This study evaluates the performance of the Iterative Signature Algorithm (ISA) and Plaid Model following imputation using Hot Deck, K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), and Expectation Maximization (EM). The novelty of this study lies in assessing how the interaction between imputation methods and biclustering algorithms affects bicluster recovery and quality. Missing values were generated under MCAR at 5% and 10% proportions with 100 repetitions. Bicluster quality was evaluated using Mean Squared Residue (MSR), Transposed Virtual Error (VEt), and Sub-Matrix Correlation Score (SCS), while bicluster consistency was assessed using the Jaccard Index (JI). ISA consistently achieved higher JI values, indicating better preservation of bicluster structures, whereas the Plaid Model produced lower MSR, VEt, and SCS values, indicating more homogeneous biclusters. KNN generally showed the most consistent performance across scenarios. These findings suggest that imputation methods and biclustering algorithms should be selected jointly according to the analytical objective to obtain reliable biclustering results from incomplete macroeconomic data.
Performance Evaluation of Multinomial Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and XGBoost Methods in Data Classification Mega Maulina; Yani Prihantini Hiola; Indahwati; Aam Alamudi
Journal of Mathematics, Computations and Statistics Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 02 (Oktober 2025)
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/jmathcos.v8i2.8459

Abstract

The development of data volume and complexity in the digital era increases the need for effective classification methods to support decision-making. Decision-making in classification tasks often requires methods that are well-suited to the data, along with the ability to produce accurate and reliable predictions. As scientific knowledge continues to advance, a wide range of classification methods have been developed. This study aims to analyze the performance of three commonly used classification methods Multinomial Logistic Regression, Random Forest, and XGBoost, in handling diverse data characteristics. Ten varied public datasets were used in this research, with differences in the number of classes, features, instances, balanced and imbalanced data conditions. Evaluation was conducted based on accuracy, F1-score, precision, and recall. The analysis results show that Random Forest consistently delivers the best performance particularly on imbalanced data. XGBoost demonstrates superiority on more complex datasets, while Multinomial Logistic Regression proves more effective on relatively small datasets. This research provides valuable insights into selecting appropriate classification methods based on data characteristics and highlights the effectiveness of ensemble-based approaches in handling diverse data. Based on the findings, it is recommended that the selection of classification algorithms be tailored to the characteristics of the dataset. Random Forest is preferable for handling imbalanced data, while XGBoost is ideal for complex datasets requiring robust hyperparameter tuning. Multinomial Logistic Regression remains a viable option for simpler datasets with fewer observations and features. Future research could explore hybrid models that combine these approaches to further optimize classification performance across various domains.