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All Journal Return : Study of Management, Economic and Bussines Inkubis: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Economics and Business Journal
Syaiful Syaiful
Universitas Borobudur
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Heterogeneity of Rural Poverty in Indonesia: An Analysis Using the Moment Panel Quantile Approach Syaiful Syaiful; Muhamad Halilintar
Inkubis : Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Vol. 8 No. 1 (2026): INKUBIS Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis
Publisher : Politeknik Siber Cerdika Internasional

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59261/inkubis.v8i1.177

Abstract

Background: Rural poverty in Indonesia remains consistently higher than urban poverty; mean-based regression methods are heavily used but conceal strong spatial and distributional heterogeneity across provinces. A methodological gap exists in understanding how provinces experience the effects of policy variables across different points in the poverty distribution. Objective: This study employs a quantile-sensitive approach to investigate the heterogeneous determinants of rural poverty growth in 33 Indonesian provinces from 2015 to 2023. Methods: Data from 33 provinces (2015–2023, n = 297 observations) are analyzed using the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) with fixed effects, following cross-sectional dependence (CSD) and CIPS panel unit root tests. Results: The effects of development variables on rural poverty vary considerably across quantiles. The capitalization of village funds appears to correlate negatively with rural poverty prevalence in provinces experiencing extreme deprivation and positively elsewhere, suggesting there is inefficiency and/or misallocation at play. Land use change can alleviate poverty in semi-urbanizing regions but harms deeply agrarian, poor communities. Migration tends to reduce poverty only in wealthier areas. Agricultural growth reduces rural poverty mainly in middle-quantile regions, while unemployment consistently exacerbates poverty across all quantiles. Conclusion: The study contributes novel heterogeneity evidence to the rural poverty literature and recommends quantile-differentiated policy targeting for Indonesian rural development.
Inequality of Economic Development Between Regions: A Case Study of Eastern and Western Indonesia Hapsari Widayani; Syaiful Syaiful
Return : Study of Management, Economic and Bussines Vol. 5 No. 6 (2026): Return: Study of Management, Economic and Business
Publisher : PT. Publikasiku Academic Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.57096/return.v5i6.473

Abstract

Indonesia faces persistent disparities in economic development between its western and eastern regions, a structural issue rooted in historical concentration of growth and investment.  This study aims to analyze the magnitude and trends of economic development disparities between Eastern and Western Indonesia, identify the main factors causing these inequalities, and evaluate the impact of such disparities on regional welfare. The research employed a quantitative approach with secondary data from 2015-2023. Indicators include Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), Human Development Index (HDI), poverty rate, and investment. Results show significant gaps where Western Indonesia's average GRDP per capita reaches Rp 65.4 million while Eastern Indonesia only Rp 38.7 million. Western Indonesia's HDI reaches 72.8 while Eastern Indonesia reaches 68.3. Eastern Indonesia's poverty rate 11.8% is higher than Western Indonesia's 8.2%. Main factors include investment concentration, limited infrastructure, and primary sector dependence. In conclusion, these disparities are widening over time and have negative impacts on social welfare and national integration. The study recommends investment redistribution, infrastructure development acceleration, and economic diversification to reduce disparities.
Formal Employment and The Human Development Index: A Panel Analysis of 14 Provinces in Indonesia (2015–2024) Picesco Andika Tulus; Cicih Ratnasih; Syaiful Syaiful
Economics and Business Journal (ECBIS) Vol. 4 No. 6 (2026): September
Publisher : PT. Maju Malaqbi Makkarana

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47353/ecbis.v4i6.588

Abstract

This study examines the effects of investment, provincial minimum wage, population growth, ICT index, and manufacturing GRDP growth on formal employment absorption, and its implications for the Human Development Index (HDI) in Indonesia. Using balanced panel data from 14 provinces selected as Indonesia’s principal industrial and investment hubs with complete data coverage, over 2015–2024, estimated with Panel EGLS Random Effects and GLS Period SUR weighting, the results show that all independent variables jointly significantly affect formal employment absorption (F=196.58; p=0.0000). Investment, ICT index, and manufacturing growth have positive significant effects, highlighting structural transformation and digitalization. Minimum wage and population growth are also positive, while the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has a significant negative impact. In the second stage, formal employment absorption has a positive but insignificant effect on HDI after controlling for average years of schooling, poverty rate, and regional education-health expenditure. The pandemic in 2020–2021 significantly suppressed HDI. These findings suggest that formal employment is important but not yet sufficient to boost HDI due to job quality, productivity, and redistributive policy constraints. Integrated policies linking labor markets, industrialization, and digitalization are essential for resilient and sustainable human development.
Co-Authors Cicih Ratnasih Hapsari Widayani Muhamad Halilintar Picesco Andika Tulus