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Weather-Driven Loss Modeling for Rice Farmers' Losses Using Cobb-Douglas and VaR-ES Nurviana Nurviana; Amelia Amelia; Riezky Purnama Sari; Ulya Nabilla; Mawarni Mawarni; Masthura Masthura
ZERO: Jurnal Sains, Matematika dan Terapan Vol 9, No 3 (2025): Zero: Jurnal Sains Matematika dan Terapan
Publisher : UIN Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30829/zero.v9i3.26842

Abstract

Weather variability poses significant risks to rice production, leading to potential income losses for farmers and increased uncertainty in agricultural planning. This study integrates a Cobb-Douglas production function with Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) measures to assess weather-driven production losses in Aceh Besar using secondary data on rainfall, temperature, and wind speed from 2010 to 2023. Rice production is first modeled to estimate output sensitivity to climatic factors, after which production losses are derived from forecast-based outcomes. Several candidate parametric probability distributions are fitted to the loss data, and the most suitable distribution is selected based on goodness-of-fit ranking. The results indicate that weather variables significantly reduce rice output and that the production process exhibits decreasing returns to scale. The selected distribution yields a potential loss of IDR 774,352 and an expected loss of IDR 940,160 per hectare at the 95% confidence level. These findings provide a quantitative basis for weather-based agricultural risk assessment and support evidence-based risk mitigation strategies for farmers and policymakers.
SISTEM PENDUKUNG KEPUTUSAN PENILAIAN KINERJA GURU MENGGUNAKAN IMPROVED K-MEANS CLUSTERING DAN METODE SAW Mawarni Mawarni; Fitri Rezky Hamzani; Ulya Nabilla; Intan Sari; Masthura Masthura
JOURNAL OF SCIENCE AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Vol. 9 No. 3 (2026): June 2026
Publisher : Smart Education

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.54314/jssr.v9i3.6707

Abstract

Abstract: School A Banjarmasin is a boarding school that motivates teachers through exemplary teacher selection and salary increases based on performance clusters. However, in 2022–2023, teacher performance appraisal was not conducted due to the absence of a supporting system and historical performance data, resulting in equal salary increases. To address this issue, this study proposes the development of a Decision Support System (DSS) that integrates Improved K-Means Clustering for grouping salary increases and the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) method for determining exemplary teachers. The system is implemented using Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) in Microsoft Excel. The data used in this study consist of teacher performance assessment results for the 2023/2024 academic year, evaluated across four assessment dimensions comprising eleven criteria. The DSS produces two outputs. Based on school-defined standards, two outputs were generated. The first output indicates suboptimal performance, with three populated clusters, while the fourth cluster contains no members due to data distribution. The second output represents the author's recommended clustering, with a silhouette score evaluation value of 0.5125, indicating optimal visibility between clusters, ensuring four salary increase clusters. Overall, the proposed DSS provides more accurate, objective, and systematic calculations and rankings, thereby supporting decision makers in evaluating teacher performance and determining salary increases more effectively. Keywords: k-means clustering, simple additive weighting (SAW), teacher performance assessment, VBA Excel   Abstrak: Sekolah A Banjarmasin merupakan sekolah berasrama yang memotivasi guru melalui pemilihan guru teladan dan kenaikan gaji berdasarkan klaster kinerja. Namun, pada tahun 2022–2023, penilaian kinerja guru tidak dilaksanakan karena ketiadaan sistem pendukung dan data historis kinerja, sehingga kenaikan gaji diberikan secara merata. Untuk mengatasi masalah ini, penelitian ini mengusulkan pengembangan Sistem Pendukung Keputusan (SPK) yang mengintegrasikan metode Improved K-Means Clustering untuk pengelompokan kenaikan gaji dan metode Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) untuk menentukan guru teladan. Sistem ini diimplementasikan menggunakan Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) pada Microsoft Excel. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini mencakup hasil penilaian kinerja guru tahun ajaran 2023/2024, yang dievaluasi berdasarkan empat dimensi penilaian yang terdiri dari sebelas kriteria. Sistem ini menghasilkan dua keluaran. Keluaran pertama menunjukkan kinerja yang kurang optimal, dengan tiga klaster yang terisi, sementara klaster keempat tidak memiliki anggota akibat distribusi data. Keluaran kedua merepresentasikan hasil pengelompokan yang disarankan oleh penulis, dengan nilai evaluasi silhouette score sebesar 0,5125 yang menunjukkan pemisahan optimal antar-klaster serta memastikan terbentuknya empat klaster kenaikan gaji. Secara keseluruhan, SPK yang diusulkan memberikan perhitungan dan pemeringkatan yang lebih akurat, objektif, dan sistematis, sehingga membantu pengambil keputusan dalam mengevaluasi kinerja guru dan menentukan kenaikan gaji secara lebih efektif. Kata kunci: k-means clustering, simple additive weighting (SAW), penilaian kinerja guru, VBA Excel