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All Journal JASc (Journal of Agribusiness Sciences)
Ester Kejutini Sigiro, Yudika
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Resilience of Indonesian Plantation Commodity Exports to Global Geopolitical Shocks Akbar, M. Farandika; Ester Kejutini Sigiro, Yudika; Efendi Nasution, Erwin; Febriansyah Ibrahim, Muhammad
JASc (Journal of Agribusiness Sciences) Vol 10, No 1 (2026): "JASc" JOURNAL OF AGRIBUSINESS SCIENCES
Publisher : JASc (Journal of Agribusiness Sciences)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30596/jasc.v10i1.29584

Abstract

This study evaluates the export resilience of Indonesia's key plantation commodities which is Technically Specified Natural Rubber (TSNR), Crude Palm Oil (CPO), and coffee by integrating Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Trade Specialization Index (TSI), and Export Product Dynamics (EPD) indicators from 2010 to 2024. The empirical findings reveal a systematic degradation in export competitiveness, particularly for TSNR, while CPO and coffee exhibit dynamic but fragile resilience in the face of global macroeconomic shocks. The study highlights that Indonesia's export position is increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical transmission risks, notably the potential escalation of the Iran–Israel–US conflict. Such instability threatens to trigger systemic convergence toward the "Retreat" quadrant due to disruptions in maritime logistics and global demand contraction. These findings underscore the urgent need for strategic market diversification and value chain strengthening to mitigate the looming threats of global trade fragmentation.
Co-Authors Akbar, M. Farandika Efendi Nasution, Erwin Febriansyah Ibrahim, Muhammad