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All Journal Indonesian Journal of Advanced Research (IJAR) Indonesian Journal of Research and Service Studies Journal of Shariah Economics
Ridwansyah
Universitas Jambi
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Prediksi Kemiskinan Ekstrem di Provinsi Jambi Berbasis Data Mikro SUSENAS: Perbandingan Regresi Logistik, Random Forest, dan XGBoost serta Analisis Determinan Ari Hidayat; Zulgani .; Ridwansyah .; Siti Hodijah; Nurhayani .
JOURNAL OF SHARIA ECONOMICS Vol 7 No 2 (2025): Journal of Sharia Economics
Publisher : Program Studi Ekonomi Syariah, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam, Universitas Al Hikmah Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35896/jse.v4i1.1261

Abstract

Extreme poverty is the most severe form of poverty, characterized by a household's inability to meet basic needs and tends to persist despite ongoing social program interventions. In Jambi Province, poverty trends are fluctuating and influenced by macroeconomic dynamics and the agricultural sector; while extreme poverty indicators show an aggregate decline, inequality remains between districts/cities. This study aims to: (1) analyze socioeconomic factors influencing the extreme poverty status of households in Jambi Province, (2) compare the performance of prediction models using econometric approaches (logistic regression) and machine learning (Random Forest and XGBoost), and (3) examine differences in the determinants of extreme poverty between agricultural and non-agricultural households. The data used are SUSENAS microdata for the 2020–2024 period using a pooling approach (cross-section and time series) for all districts/cities in Jambi Province. Extreme poverty status is defined based on the international threshold of USD 2.15 PPP or national adjustment (TNP2K) in the relevant year. Modeling was performed by dividing the training data into 80% and 20% test data, conducting feature selection, model training, and hyperparameter tuning, as well as evaluation based on the confusion matrix and AUC–ROC. In addition to performance evaluation, this study emphasized sectoral comparative analysis by training the model separately on agricultural and non-agricultural subsamples to identify dominant determinants that are both universal and sector-specific.
The Model of Environment Gradation: Environment Awareness Mediates Low Society Economic, Negative Attitude, and Community Culture M. Havidz Aima; Ridwansyah
Indonesian Journal of Research and Service Studies Vol. 1 No. 9 (2024): Indonesian Journal of Research and Service Studies
Publisher : Jujurnal Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59613/20399f39

Abstract

This article develops and qualitatively examines a conceptual model of environment gradation—defined as patterned differences in environmental quality, resilience, and stewardship across neighborhoods and communities—by theorizing how environmental awareness mediates three antecedent conditions: low socioeconomic circumstances (hereafter “low society economic”), negative environmental attitudes, and community culture. We synthesize recent literature (last five years) and present an interpretive, multi-site qualitative design to illuminate mechanisms through which awareness translates structural disadvantage and cultural scripts into situated practices. The study integrates perspectives from value–belief–norm (VBN) theory, social cognitive theory, and environmental justice scholarship to explain when and how awareness facilitates (or fails to facilitate) pro-environmental behavior under constraint. A comparative thematic analysis, supported by interviews, focus groups, walk-along observations, and document review, identifies four cross-cutting pathways—knowledge gaps, risk salience, social identity and norms, and structural friction—through which environmental awareness either amplifies or buffers the effects of economic precarity, apathy/fatalism, and local cultural logics. We contribute: (1) a definition and operationalization of environment gradation at community scale; (2) a mediated model that clarifies the role of awareness amid resource scarcity; and (3) actionable implications for municipal programs that combine economic relief, culturally grounded communication, and community-led stewardship. We conclude with a 15-study synthesis table (2019–2025) and recommendations for future mixed-methods testing of the proposed pathways.
The Effect of International and Domestic Price Disparities on the Supply Volume of Coconuts: An Econometric Approach Using a Farmer Preference Model Ahmad Edi Saputra; Zulgani; Suandi; Zamzami; Ridwansyah
Indonesian Journal of Advanced Research Vol. 5 No. 8 (2026): August 2026
Publisher : PT FORMOSA CENDEKIA GLOBAL

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55927/ijar.v5i8.17134

Abstract

Imperfections in the market structure for perennial plantation commodities often trigger the phenomenon of asymmetric price transmission, which widens the price disparity between international exchanges and farm-gate prices. This study aims to quantitatively analyze the impact of international-domestic price disparities on the supply volume of oil palm (Cocos nucifera L.) and farmers’ supply volume decisions using the Farmer Choice Model econometric approach. Data were collected through a structured survey of 100 coconut-farming households in West Tanjung Jabung and East Tanjung Jabung Regencies, Jambi Province, and combined with time-series data on international reference prices (CNO Rotterdam CIF) for the period 2020–2025. The Heckman Two-Step Selection Model was used to address sample selection bias. In Stage 1 (Selection Equation—Probit), the study results show that price disparity has a significant negative effect on the probability of farmers participating in the formal market (β = -0.0412, p < 0.01). In Stage 2 (Outcome Equation—OLS with Inverse Mills Ratio Correction), the price disparity variable had a coefficient of -0.1854 (p < 0.01), demonstrating that a 10% increase in price disparity reduces coconut supply volume by 1.85%. The significant Inverse Mills Ratio coefficient (λ) (λ =       -0.412, p = 0.028) confirms the presence of selection bias and validates the reliability of the Heckman model. The results of this study recommend the need for institutional reforms in the supply chain, modernization of the cold chain and processing at the cooperative level, and price transparency based on digital technology to reduce the oligopsony of local collectors.
Co-Authors Ahmad Edi Saputra Aima, Muhammad Havidz Ari Hidayat Nurhayani . Siti Hodijah Suandi Suandi Zamzami Zulgani . Zulgani Zulgani