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All Journal MATRIK : Jurnal Manajemen, Teknik Informatika, dan Rekayasa Komputer
Ajif Yunizar Pratama
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Computer Science & IT

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Performance Comparison of LSTM, XGBoost, and Residual-Correction Hybrid LSTM–XGBoost Models for Bitcoin Price Forecasting Anwas, Ihsan Maulana; Fahrianto, Feri; Shofi, Imam Marzuki; Ajif Yunizar Pratama
MATRIK : Jurnal Manajemen, Teknik Informatika dan Rekayasa Komputer Vol. 25 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Bumigora

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30812/matrik.v25i2.5983

Abstract

The objective of this study is to systematically compare the predictive performance of Long Short- Term Memory (LSTM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and a Hybrid LSTM–XGBoost model for next-day Bitcoin (BTC–USD) closing-price forecasting. The research method employs a quantitative time-series modeling approach using a decade-long daily Bitcoin price dataset. A strictly chronological train–test split and a one-step-ahead forecasting scheme are applied to prevent lookahead bias and ensure experimental validity. Model performance is evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (sMAPE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and the coefficient of determination R2 on the original price scale. The results demonstrate that the Hybrid LSTM–XGBoost model consistently outperforms the standalone LSTM and XGBoost models across all evaluation metrics, indicating superior predictive accuracy and robustness under high market volatility. The contribution of this study lies in providing a controlled, uniform, and methodologically rigorous head-to-head comparison of deep learning, machine learning, and hybrid architectures for Bitcoin price forecasting, thereby enriching the empirical literature and offering a reliable foundation for the development of adaptive decision-support systemsin volatile cryptocurrency investment environments.
Co-Authors Anwas, Ihsan Maulana Shofi, Imam Marzuki