E-Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Udayana
VOLUME.08.NO.03.TAHUN 2019

Peramalan Indikator Mikro Kinerja Komoditas Strategis Perkebunan Dengan Metode ARIMAX (Autoregressive Moving Average Exogenous Variabel)

Bayu Kharisma (Departemen Ilmu Ekonomi, Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis, Universitas Padjadjaran)



Article Info

Publish Date
21 Mar 2019

Abstract

This paper aims to forecast various micro indicators of the performance of plantation strategic commodities, namely coffee, cocoa, pepper and sugar cane in Indonesia during the period 2019-2045. The methodology used in this paper is ARIMAX (exogenous autoregressive variable moving average). The results showed that pepper production tended to decrease. The same thing happened in the prediction of the area of ??pepper land which tended to continue to decline, while pepper productivity was relatively stable. Meanwhile, the projection of coffee commodity production, coffee area and productivity levels continue to rise. The projection of sugarcane production tends to increase despite fluctuations. Similar to the pattern of production, the area of ??sugarcane and productivity also increased. The projection of Indonesian cocoa production fluctuates and tends to increase during 2019-2045. The same conditions occur in the area of ??cocoa that continues to increase. Finally, the level of cocoa productivity is rising even though it tends to be volatile.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

EEB

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education

Description

E-Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Udayana (EEB) is an electronic scientific journal that publishes the results of economic and business studies. EEB is published periodically every month with an online format. EEB Editor receives written results of studies in the fields of economics, ...