Pengaruh Fiskal Moneter terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia

Dedi Junaedi (Program Studi Ekonomi Syariah Fakultas Syariah, Institut Agama Islam Nasional (IAI-N) Laa Roiba Bogor)
Rio Kartika Supriyatna
Evinovita Evinovita

Al-Kharaj: Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah
Vol 2 No 2 (2020): Al-Kharaj: Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah

This study aims to: analyze whether monetary fiscal policy affects the economy (GDP) of Indonesia and examine whether differences in the budget regime affect the fiscal fiscal governance in supporting the achievement of Indonesia's GDP. Research using quantitative analysis methods; The data used are time series 1990-2010, the analysis technique used is multiple regression with dummy variables. The results show that monetary stability - represented by the variable APBN, financing, investment, BI-rate, exports, imports, inflation, exchange rates and budget regime differences - simultaneously significantly influences GDP development. The level of correlation between the independent variables and the variable variable is quite strong with R-squared 0.9969%. This means that the research variables can explain the dynamics of GDP around 99.69%, the effect is influenced by other variables not examined. Partially, from the results of the statistical analysis, it was found that the APBN, investment, BI-Rate, Imports and the exchange rate had an effect and the difference in the budget system regime had a significant effect on the development of GDP. While the variable financing, exports and inflation have no significant effect on GDP. Cost variables can have a real impact if the standard error is raised to 19%. Exports can significantly affect GDP if the standard error is raised to 24%. APBN, investment, BI-Rate and budget regime differences are positively correlated to GDP. While imports and the exchange rate are negatively correlated to GDP. The econometric model of the influence of oneter stability with GDP is as follows: GDP $ = 0.3131 * APBN + 1.8437 * INVEST $ + 7.8384 * BI_RATE - 0.00037 * IMPORT - 0.01226 * EXCHANGE $ + 167.02356 * REZIM1 + 181.1681 * REZIM2 + 197.6315. Relatively, the use of an integrated and performance-based budgeting system is better than a balanced budget system. Likewise the performance-based budgeting system is also relatively better than the integrated budgeting system. This means that the budget system reform in Indonesia has been on the right track so far.