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Pengaruh Stabilitas Moneter terhadap Perekonomian Nasional: Rio Kartika Supriyatna; Dedi Junaedi; Evi Novita
Al-Kharaj : Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah Vol 1 No 2 (2019): Al-Kharaj: Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah
Publisher : Research and Strategic Studies Center (Pusat Riset dan Kajian Strategis) Fakultas Syariah IAI Nasional Laa Roiba

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (626.698 KB) | DOI: 10.47467/alkharaj.v1i2.57

Abstract

Objectives of this research is to analyze: Does monetary stability affect Indonesia's GDP?; Does the difference in governance regimes affect the governance of monetary stability in supporting the achievement of Indonesia's GDP?; Does monetary stability affect Indonesia's per capita income (PCI)?; Does the difference in government regimes affect the management of monetary stability in supporting the achievement of Indonesia's per capita income (PCI)?. The research method uses descriptive-quantitative analysis with saturated sampling techniques and secondary data from Bank Indonesia, the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the World Bank, and other reference sources. The data is in the form of time series data from the period 1990-2019. The dependentvariable is the value of GDP and GDP per capita (ICP). While the independent variable: the exchange rate, the money supply, the inflation rate, direct investment, financing, the state budget, the amount of debt (US $), the number of exports, the number of imports, and the dummy variable period of the reform era government with the era of the New Order Government (Soeharto) as comparison or reference. The processed data were analyzed in quantitative descriptive with multiple regression models with dummy variables. The result is that some indicators of monetary stability (money supply, exchange rate, BI rate, investment, imports, and the state budget) have a significant effect on the economy (GDP). While inflation, financing and foreign debt did not significantly affect GDP achievement. The Reformation government regimes (BJ Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid, Megawati Sukarnoputeri, Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and Joko Widodo) are different and better than the New Order (Soeharto) government in managing stability towards achieving GDP. The econometrics model is GDP$ = 178,542 + 0.0999 * M1M2 -0.0186 * EXCHANGE $ + 9.5872 * BI_RATE + 1.1935 * INVEST $ - 0.000225 * IMPORT + 0.181 * APBN + 182.488 * REZIM1 + 171.038 * REZIM2 + 199.86 * REZIM3 + REVIMIM3 + 214.599 * REZIM5. Some indicators of monetary stability (money supply, exchange rate, BI rate, investment, import and APBN) also have a significant effect on GDP per capita. While inflation, financing and foreign debt did not significantly affect the achievement of GDP per capita. The Reform era government regime (BJ Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid, Megawati Sukarnoputeri, Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and Joko Widodo) differed and more better than the New Order era administration (Soeharto) in governance stability. to the achievement of GDP per capita. The econometric model: PCIUS$ = 5.7594 + 0.0032 * M1M2 - 0.0006 * EXCHANGE$ + 0.3092 * BI_RATE + 0.0385 * INVEST$ -0.0000072 * IMPORT + 0.0058 * APBN + 5.8867 * REZIM1 + 5.5173 * REZIM2 + 6.4471 * REZIM3 + 6.ZZ * REZIM5.JEL CLASSIFICATION: E52, E58, E63
Pengaruh Fiskal Moneter terhadap Perekonomian Indonesia Dedi Junaedi; Rio Kartika Supriyatna; Evinovita Evinovita
Al-Kharaj : Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah Vol 2 No 2 (2020): Al-Kharaj: Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah
Publisher : Research and Strategic Studies Center (Pusat Riset dan Kajian Strategis) Fakultas Syariah IAI Nasional Laa Roiba

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (600.773 KB) | DOI: 10.47467/alkharaj.v2i2.114

Abstract

This study aims to: analyze whether monetary fiscal policy affects the economy (GDP) of Indonesia and examine whether differences in the budget regime affect the fiscal fiscal governance in supporting the achievement of Indonesia's GDP. Research using quantitative analysis methods; The data used are time series 1990-2010, the analysis technique used is multiple regression with dummy variables. The results show that monetary stability - represented by the variable APBN, financing, investment, BI-rate, exports, imports, inflation, exchange rates and budget regime differences - simultaneously significantly influences GDP development. The level of correlation between the independent variables and the variable variable is quite strong with R-squared 0.9969%. This means that the research variables can explain the dynamics of GDP around 99.69%, the effect is influenced by other variables not examined. Partially, from the results of the statistical analysis, it was found that the APBN, investment, BI-Rate, Imports and the exchange rate had an effect and the difference in the budget system regime had a significant effect on the development of GDP. While the variable financing, exports and inflation have no significant effect on GDP. Cost variables can have a real impact if the standard error is raised to 19%. Exports can significantly affect GDP if the standard error is raised to 24%. APBN, investment, BI-Rate and budget regime differences are positively correlated to GDP. While imports and the exchange rate are negatively correlated to GDP. The econometric model of the influence of oneter stability with GDP is as follows: GDP $ = 0.3131 * APBN + 1.8437 * INVEST $ + 7.8384 * BI_RATE - 0.00037 * IMPORT - 0.01226 * EXCHANGE $ + 167.02356 * REZIM1 + 181.1681 * REZIM2 + 197.6315. Relatively, the use of an integrated and performance-based budgeting system is better than a balanced budget system. Likewise the performance-based budgeting system is also relatively better than the integrated budgeting system. This means that the budget system reform in Indonesia has been on the right track so far.