JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika)
Vol 6, No 4 (2022): October

Sensitivity Analysis of SEIRS Model with Quarantine on the Spread of Covid-19

Hardianti, Wiwik Tri (Unknown)
Sumarno, Hadi (Unknown)
Sianturi, Paian (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
07 Oct 2022

Abstract

Since the Covid-19 pandemic, various mathematical models have been developed to describe its spread using the compartment model. The purpose of this research was to construct a new model of Covid-19. This formulated model is an application of SEIRS epidemic model by Zhang & Teng (2007) and a modification of the Covid-19 model by Chatterjee et al. (2020) by adding variations of quarantine. The model is analyzed by determining the disease-free fixed point and basic reproduction number 〖(R〗_0) through the next generation matrix method. The next step is to analyze the sensitivity to find out the parameters that have the most influence on the spread of Covid-19. The disease will not spread in the population if the value of R_0<1, while the disease will spread if the value of R_0>1. The result of the sensitivity analysis stated the parameters that can be controlled and have the most significant effect, respectively, are the transmission rate from symptomatic infected individuals (β_2 ),transmission rates from asymptomatic infected individuals (β_1 ), quarantine rates for symptomatic infected individuals (θ_3), and quarantine rates for asymptomatic infected individuals (θ_2). Parameters β_2 and β_1 have a negative index, while θ_3 and θ_2 have a negative index. It means decreasing the transmission rate from infected individuals and increasing the quarantine rate for infected individuals can decrease the spread of Covid-19. Therefore there will not be an outbreak in the long term. 

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jtam

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika (JTAM) dikelola oleh Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika FKIP Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram dengan ISSN (Cetak) 2597-7512 dan ISSN (Online) 2614-1175. Tim Redaksi menerima hasil penelitian, pemikiran, dan kajian tentang (1) Pengembangan metode atau model ...