JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika)
Vol 6, No 4 (2022): October

Sensitivity Analysis of SEIRS Model with Quarantine on the Spread of Covid-19

Wiwik Tri Hardianti (Department of Mathematics, Bogor Agricultural University)
Hadi Sumarno (Department of Mathematics, Bogor Agricultural University)
Paian Sianturi (Department of Mathematics, Bogor Agricultural University)



Article Info

Publish Date
07 Oct 2022

Abstract

Since the Covid-19 pandemic, various mathematical models have been developed to describe its spread using the compartment model. The purpose of this research was to construct a new model of Covid-19. This formulated model is an application of SEIRS epidemic model by Zhang & Teng (2007) and a modification of the Covid-19 model by Chatterjee et al. (2020) by adding variations of quarantine. The model is analyzed by determining the disease-free fixed point and basic reproduction number 〖(R〗_0) through the next generation matrix method. The next step is to analyze the sensitivity to find out the parameters that have the most influence on the spread of Covid-19. The disease will not spread in the population if the value of R_0<1, while the disease will spread if the value of R_0>1. The result of the sensitivity analysis stated the parameters that can be controlled and have the most significant effect, respectively, are the transmission rate from symptomatic infected individuals (β_2 ),transmission rates from asymptomatic infected individuals (β_1 ), quarantine rates for symptomatic infected individuals (θ_3), and quarantine rates for asymptomatic infected individuals (θ_2). Parameters β_2 and β_1 have a negative index, while θ_3 and θ_2 have a negative index. It means decreasing the transmission rate from infected individuals and increasing the quarantine rate for infected individuals can decrease the spread of Covid-19. Therefore there will not be an outbreak in the long term. 

Copyrights © 2022






Journal Info

Abbrev

jtam

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika (JTAM) dikelola oleh Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika FKIP Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram dengan ISSN (Cetak) 2597-7512 dan ISSN (Online) 2614-1175. Tim Redaksi menerima hasil penelitian, pemikiran, dan kajian tentang (1) Pengembangan metode atau model ...