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All Journal Jurnal Matematika Journal of Mathematical and Fundamental Sciences Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA (JPPIPA) JMPM: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Jambura Journal of Mathematics ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications MES: Journal of Mathematics Education and Science Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Jambura Journal of Biomathematics (JJBM) Milang Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Aceh International Journal of Science and Technology Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS) MILANG Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Paian Sianturi
Department Of Mathematics, Bogor Agricultural University, Jl. Meranti, Kampus IPB Dramaga, Bogor 16680, Indonesia
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Astronomy Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Chemistry Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Earth & Planetary Sciences Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Energy Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

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Dynamical System of the Mathematical Model for Tuberculosis with Vaccination Ludji, Dian Grace; Sianturi, Paian; Nugrahani, Endar
ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications Vol 10, No 2 (2019): ComTech
Publisher : Bina Nusantara University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21512/comtech.v10i2.5686

Abstract

This research focused on the modification of deterministic mathematical models for tuberculosis with vaccination. It also aimed to see the effect of giving the vaccine. It was done by adding vaccine compartments to people who were given the vaccine in the susceptible compartment. The population was divided into nine different groups. Those were susceptible individuals (S), vaccine (V), new latently infected (E1), diagnosed latently infected (E2), undiagnosed latently infected (E3), undiagnosed actively infected (l), diagnosed actively infected with prompt treatment (Dr), diagnosed actively infected with delay treatment (Dp), and treated (T). Basic reproduction number was constructed using next-generation matrix. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted. The results show that the model comprises two equilibriums: diseasefree equilibrium (T0) and endemic equilibrium (T*). It also shows that there is a relationship between R0 and two equilibriums. Moreover, the disease-free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable local when it is R0 < 1. Then, the disease-endemic equilibrium point is asymptotically stable local when it is R0 > 1. Furthermore, the parameters of ?, ?, and ? are the most important parameter.
Analisis Dinamika Model Penyakit Toksoplasmosis pada Populasi Kucing dan Manusia Riza Rusdiani; Ali Kusnanto; Paian Sianturi
Jurnal Matematika Vol 11 No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/JMAT.2021.v11.i02.p138

Abstract

Abstract: Toxoplasmosis is a disease that is identical to cats. This disease is caused by the parasite Toxoplasma gondii. In this study, a mathematical model of the spread of toxoplasmosis was reviewed with various population size. In this study, model construction, fixed point analysis and parameter sensitivity analysis were carried out. From the sensitivity analysis, it is shown that the cat transmission rate from a susceptible cat population to an infected cat population (horizontal transmission rate) and the probability of a susceptible cat born from an infected cat (vertical transmission rate) are found as sensitive parameters on production number ( Decreasing the horizontal transmission rate and an increase value of the vertical transmission rate can reduce the value of A decrease in the value of , results in a disease-free state will be achieved more quickly so that the disease is under control.
Analisis Kestabilan Model Insidensi Setengah Jenuh pada Epidemi Flu Burung Yomi Kharisma Septika; Ali Kusnanto; Paian Sianturi
Jurnal Matematika Vol 11 No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Udayana University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/JMAT.2021.v11.i02.p139

Abstract

Abstract: The H5N1 avian influenza is an example of a pathogen that is known to cause human disease outbreaks. This study focuses on selecting avian influenza control strategies using Half-Saturated Incidence (HSI) Models. In this study, a model was constructed by involving elements of human self-protection, poultry isolation and poultry vaccination. Furthermore, it is shown that the parameters that influence are the parameters of the population that apply personal protection and its effectiveness, the parameters of the rate of isolation of birds with avian influenza, and the parameters of vaccine coverage and its effectiveness. Increasing the value of this parameter can reduce the basic reproduction number so that disease-free conditions can occur. Hence, controlling the dynamics of disease spread can be done by increasing the value of these parameters.
Analysis of SIS-SI Stochastic Model with CTMC on the Spread of Malaria Disease Niswah Yanfa Nabilah Syams; Hadi Sumarno; Paian Sianturi
Journal of Mathematical and Fundamental Sciences Vol. 53 No. 2 (2021)
Publisher : Institute for Research and Community Services (LPPM) ITB

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/j.math.fund.sci.2021.53.2.1

Abstract

Various mathematical models have been developed to describe the transmission of malaria disease. The purpose of this study was to modify an existing mathematical model of malaria disease by using a CTMC stochastic model. The investigation focused on the transition probability, the basic reproduction number (R0), the outbreak probability, the expected time required to reach a disease-free equilibrium, and the quasi-stationary probability distribution. The population system will experience disease outbreak if R0>1, whereas an outbreak will not occur in the population system if R0≤1. The probability that a mosquito bites an infectious human is denoted as k, while θ is associated with human immunity. Based on the numerical analysis conducted, k and θ have high a contribution to the distribution of malaria disease. This conclusion is based on their impact on the outbreak probability and the expected time required to reach a disease-free equilibrium.
An Analysis of CTMC Stochastic Models with Quarantine on the Spread of Tuberculosis Diseases Fatimatuzzahroh; Hadi Sumarno; Paian Sianturi
Journal of Mathematical and Fundamental Sciences Vol. 53 No. 1 (2021)
Publisher : Institute for Research and Community Services (LPPM) ITB

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.5614/j.math.fund.sci.2021.53.1.3

Abstract

The SIQRS epidemic model developed in this study is intended to analyze the spread characteristics of the infectious disease tuberculosis. It is a modification of the SIQR model developed by Cao et al., using a stochastic model called the Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMC) approach. Further analysis of the SIQRS model was done to determine the transitional probability, the outbreak probability, the expected time until disease extinction and to simulate the effect of quarantine treatment on the expected time until disease extinction. Based on the simulation it can be concluded that a decrease of the healing rate together with an increase of the transmission rate changes the basic reproduction number (R0), the expected number of infected individuals (m), the time until disease extinction, and the outbreak probability. A disease outbreak will occur if both R0>1 and m>1 hold. Also, based on the simulation it was concluded that the decrease of the healing rate and the increase of the transmission rate cause increases of R0 and m. An increase of the quarantine rate reduces the expected time to disease extinction, R0 and m. As a consequence, the disease will gradually disappear from the system.
ANALISIS DINAMIKA PENYEBARAN COVID-19 DENGAN LAJU INSIDEN NONLINEAR Nurul Qorima Putri; Paian Sianturi
MES: Journal of Mathematics Education and Science Vol 6, No 2 (2021): Edisi Mei
Publisher : Universitas Islam Sumatera Utara

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.30743/mes.v6i2.3358

Abstract

This research is focused on discussing the SEIQRS epidemic model for the spread of the COVID-19 disease with a nonlinear incidence rate. From the result of analysis of the SEIQR model obtained two equilibrium point these are diseases free equilibrium points and endemic equilibrium point. Then, the analysis of the completion behavior is done by using eigenvalues and stability around equilibrium point, the obtained result of the diseases free equilibrium point has two stability traits are saddle point, and stable. The stability diseases free equilibrium will be stable when  R0  1, if R0 1 then the equilibrium point is not stable (saddle point) and conversely the positive endemic equilibrium point will be spiral stable. In numerical analysis, it is done by varying the parameter values and using the fourth order runge-kutta approach.
Dynamical System of the Mathematical Model for Tuberculosis with Vaccination Dian Grace Ludji; Paian Sianturi; Endar Nugrahani
ComTech: Computer, Mathematics and Engineering Applications Vol. 10 No. 2 (2019): ComTech
Publisher : Bina Nusantara University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21512/comtech.v10i2.5686

Abstract

This research focused on the modification of deterministic mathematical models for tuberculosis with vaccination. It also aimed to see the effect of giving the vaccine. It was done by adding vaccine compartments to people who were given the vaccine in the susceptible compartment. The population was divided into nine different groups. Those were susceptible individuals (S), vaccine (V), new latently infected (E1), diagnosed latently infected (E2), undiagnosed latently infected (E3), undiagnosed actively infected (l), diagnosed actively infected with prompt treatment (Dr), diagnosed actively infected with delay treatment (Dp), and treated (T). Basic reproduction number was constructed using next-generation matrix. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted. The results show that the model comprises two equilibriums: diseasefree equilibrium (T0) and endemic equilibrium (T*). It also shows that there is a relationship between R0 and two equilibriums. Moreover, the disease-free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable local when it is R0 < 1. Then, the disease-endemic equilibrium point is asymptotically stable local when it is R0 > 1. Furthermore, the parameters of β, ρ, and γ are the most important parameter.
A SIR Mathematical Model of Dengue Transmission and its Simulation Asmaidi Asmaidi; Paian Sianturi; Endar Hasafah Nugrahani
Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Vol 12, No 11: November 2014
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijeecs.v12.i11.pp7920-7926

Abstract

The Mathematical model that was developed is a SIR model human-mosquito-mosquito eggs, the rate of displacement of latent mosquitoes become infected mosquito was assumed constant and non-infected eggs were produced by infected mosquitoes and susceptible mosquitoes, while infected eggs were produced by infected mosquitoes. In addition, the temperature factor used in producing susceptible mosquitoes and infected mosquitoes from eggs. The analysis shows two equilibrium state, disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. The simulation was conducted to show dynamic population where Ro<1 and Ro>1. The result shows the disease-free equilibrium which is stable when Ro<1 and the endemic equilibrium which is stable when Ro>1. This also shows mosquito mortality rate towards the desease in population. If mosquito mortality rate is increased, the basic reproduction number is decreasing, so it can prevent spread in population.
Sensitivity Analysis of SEIRS Model with Quarantine on the Spread of Covid-19 Wiwik Tri Hardianti; Hadi Sumarno; Paian Sianturi
JTAM (Jurnal Teori dan Aplikasi Matematika) Vol 6, No 4 (2022): October
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Mataram

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31764/jtam.v6i4.9627

Abstract

Since the Covid-19 pandemic, various mathematical models have been developed to describe its spread using the compartment model. The purpose of this research was to construct a new model of Covid-19. This formulated model is an application of SEIRS epidemic model by Zhang & Teng (2007) and a modification of the Covid-19 model by Chatterjee et al. (2020) by adding variations of quarantine. The model is analyzed by determining the disease-free fixed point and basic reproduction number 〖(R〗_0) through the next generation matrix method. The next step is to analyze the sensitivity to find out the parameters that have the most influence on the spread of Covid-19. The disease will not spread in the population if the value of R_0<1, while the disease will spread if the value of R_0>1. The result of the sensitivity analysis stated the parameters that can be controlled and have the most significant effect, respectively, are the transmission rate from symptomatic infected individuals (β_2 ),transmission rates from asymptomatic infected individuals (β_1 ), quarantine rates for symptomatic infected individuals (θ_3), and quarantine rates for asymptomatic infected individuals (θ_2). Parameters β_2 and β_1 have a negative index, while θ_3 and θ_2 have a negative index. It means decreasing the transmission rate from infected individuals and increasing the quarantine rate for infected individuals can decrease the spread of Covid-19. Therefore there will not be an outbreak in the long term. 
PENGARUH LAJU PENULARAN PENYAKIT DAN RATA-RATA KONTAK INDIVIDU PADA MODEL KO-INFEKSI HIV/AIDS DAN CACAR MONYET (MONKEYPOX) Dini Dessya Luthfiani; Paian Sianturi; Ali Kusnanto; Hadi Sumarno
MILANG Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications Vol. 18 No. 1 (2022): MILANG Journal of Mathematics and Its Applications
Publisher : Dept. of Mathematics, IPB University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (272.452 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/milang.18.1.29-39

Abstract

Cacar monyet (monkeypox) adalah penyakit akibat virus yang ditularkan melalui binatang. Penularan virus cacar monyet ke manusia dari hewan seperti monyet dan hewan pengerat terjadi melalui kontak langsung atau mengonsumsi daging hewan liar yang terkontaminasi. Dalam model ini, populasi hewan dibagi menjadi tiga subpopulasi dan populasi manusia dibagi menjadi sembilan subpopulasi. Hasil analisis diperoleh titik tetap bebas penyakit dan titik tetap endemik. Hasil analisis sensitivitas menunjukkan bahwa pengaruh laju penularan penyakit dan rata-rata kontak individu merupakan parameter yang paling berpengaruh dalam model. Dengan simulasi numerik, ditunjukkan juga bahwa penurunan laju penularan dan kontak individu berimplikasi pada penurunan bilangan reproduksi dasar. Secara berangsur-angsur, tingkat populasi individu terinfeksi akan turun. Dus, pengontrolan kedua faktor tersebut akan mengakibatkan penyebaran penyakit cacar monyet terkendali.
Co-Authors Abdur Rohman Abdur Rohman Akmal Taufik Ali Kusnanto Anggun Praptaningsih Annisa, Mutia Ardana, N K Kutha Ardana, N. K. Kutha Ardana, Ngakan Komang Kutha Arindria Sekar Putri Valentinna Asmaidi Asmaidi Budi Suharjo D. Ananda Osferi Dian Grace Ludji Dini Dessya Luthfiani Eliska, Nur Endar Hasafah Nugrahani Endar Nugrahani Fahren Bukhari Fatimatuzzahroh Hadi Sumarno Hadi Sumarno Hattamurrahman, Muhammad Putra Sani Ilmi, Salsabilla Fitri Jaharuddin, Jaharuddin Julianto, MT Luthfiani, Dini Dessya Mutia Annisa N. K. Kutha Ardana N. K. Kutha Ardana Nabila, Nabila NGAKAN KOMANG KUTHA ARDHANA Niswah Yanfa Nabilah Syams Nugrahani, Endar Nur Azizah Nurul Qorima Putri Nurul Qorima Putri Rauf, Nurul Maqfirah Resmawan Resmawan Riza Rusdiani Taufik, Akmal Toni Bakhtiar Valentinna, Arindria Sekar Putri Wiwik Tri Hardianti Yomi Kharisma Septika