JAMBURA JOURNAL OF PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS
Vol 4, No 1 (2023): Jambura Journal Of Probability and Statistics

Prediksi Jumlah Wisatawan Menggunakan Metode Random Forest, Single Exponential Smoothing dan Double Exponential Smoothing di Provinsi NTB

Ristu Haiban Hirzi (Universitas Hamzanwadi)
Umam Hidayaturrohman (Universitas Hamzanwadi)
Kertanah Kertanah (Universitas Hamzanwadi)
M. Hadiyan Amaly (Universitas Hamzanwadi)
Rody Satriawan (Universitas Hamzanwadi)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 May 2023

Abstract

The aim of study is to forecast global tourist visits and compare the forecasting methods to determine the best method using random forest, single exponential smoothing and double exponential smoothing, respectively. These methods are applied in global tourist visit data in West Nusa Tenggara Province. Random forest, single exponential smoothing and double exponential smoothing are familiar methods and are frequently utilized in forecasting. In addition, the three methods have great accuracy for time series data, such as data of global tourist visits. The data used in this study is data of global tourist visits from 2014 to 2021 in West Nusa Tenggara province. Applying the random forest, single exponential smoothing and double exponential smoothing methods in forecasting, the result shows that double exponential smoothing method is the best, based on the smallest value of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 325.759. The forecasting result found out that tourist visits will increase from previous time, starting from August, 2021 to July, 2021 with an estimated 847 to 1045 lives

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jps

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Environmental Science Social Sciences

Description

Probability Theory Mathematical Statistics Computational Statistics Stochastic Processes Financial Statistics Bayesian Analysis Survival Analysis Time Series Analysis Neural Network Another field which is related to statistics and the applications Another field which is related to Probability and ...