Jurnal Informatika: Jurnal Pengembangan IT
Vol 6, No 3 (2021): JPIT, September 2021

Prediksi Data Time-series menggunakan Jaringan Syaraf Tiruan Algoritma Backpropagation Pada Kasus Prediksi Permintaan Beras

Gita Indah Marthasari (Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang)
Silcillya Ayu Astiti (Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang)
Yufis Azhar (Universitas Muhammadiyah Malang)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Sep 2021

Abstract

Recently, Indonesia, as a country where the majority of the population chooses rice as the primary food source, gets a decline in the rice consumption patterns, which resulted in reduced demand for rice that should have been stable. The decrease of rice purchasing power impacts several rice suppliers, commonly referred to as rice agents, to buy rice from rice production companies. Therefore, prediction of rice stock is essential to do. This paper aims to apply the backpropagation neural network method to forecast the amount of rice demand. The data used in the study is time-series data in the form of the number of requests for rice as much as 609 data from two types of rice. The modeling scenario in this study applies one to five hidden layers with a different number of hidden neurons in each experiment. The elastic net regularization method was applied after the data denormalization process to improve the quality of the resulting model. Based on the experiments, obtained the best model on architecture 7-50-200-300-250-300-1 with MSE = 0.001278, RMSE = 0.301950 in the training process and MSE results = 0.002391, RMSE = 0.204972 in the testing process.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

informatika

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT

Description

The scope encompasses the Informatics Engineering, Computer Engineering and information Systems., but not limited to, the following scope: 1. Information Systems Information management e-Government E-business and e-Commerce Spatial Information Systems Geographical Information Systems IT Governance ...