Future Regional Tax Predictions in Malang City Using Time Series Method Based on Growth Rates

Damayanti, Made Tara
Puspita, Ayu Fury
Amirya, Mirna

JPSI (Journal of Public Sector Innovations)
Vol. 8 No. 2 (2024): May 2024

This research aimed to predict the regional tax potential of Malang City for the period of 2022 to 2026 by using the time series method with a focus on hotel, restaurant, entertainment, and parking taxes. The results showed that these taxes tended to increase annually except for entertainment, suggesting a downward trend. Furthermore, a comparison between potential tax predictions and the realization showed that predictions using the time series method produced figures lower than the actual realization. This discovery was influenced by the post-COVID-19 economic recovery in 2022. The research further showed that the time series method was more suitable for projecting a period of stable economy to produce more accurate projections.