Pemodelan Matematika untuk Perkiraan Jumlah Penduduk Kabupaten Minahasa pada Tahun 2026 dan 2027 Menggunakan Model Logistik

Seroan, Miracle
Annisa Husin
Windy Tunas
Gracela Songkilawang
Arbi Maarial
Fitri Damogalad

Algoritma: Jurnal Matematika, Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Kebumian dan Angkasa
Vol. 2 No. 4 (2024): Algoritma : Jurnal Matematika, Ilmu pengetahuan Alam, Kebumian dan Angkasa

This study aims to estimate the population in Minahasa Regency at t=7 or t=8 in 2026-2027 using a logistic population model. Based on data obtained from the Minahasa Regency Central Statistics Agency (BPS) from 2019 to 2022, it can be assumed that the capacity limit (K) = 400,000. The results of this research show that the accurate model to use in determining the estimated population of Minahasa Regency is the model with k = 0.0588644467, and the relative growth rate is 5.88% per year. Then, using the logistic method, the general form of the solution is obtained, namely P(t )=400,000/(e^(-0.0588644467t) (0.16921458)+1). Furthermore, the results obtained show that the predicted population of Minahasa Regency in 2026-2027 is 359,690 and 361,774 people.