Stock Management Optimization as a Sales Forecasting Strategy in Ayam Geprek SMEs

Trianawati, Lukie
Lidya, Leni
Fatimah, Ai Imas Faidhoh
Suhaima, Nurafi Razna
Fajri, Aulia Irhamni

Formosa Journal of Sustainable Research (FJSR)
Vol. 3 No. 12 (2024): December 2024

Forecasting predicts future sales volumes and is essential for efficient stock management in businesses like ayam geprek, which relies on fresh ingredients. Discrepancies between production and demand can lead to excess inventory, increased costs, and losses. This study employs a quantitative approach, analyzing September 2024 sales data using judgment sampling and methods like Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing (ETS). Data processing includes error evaluation (MAD, MSE, MAPE) to identify the best forecasting method. Results show ETS with α = 0.5 is optimal, achieving the lowest error rates (MAD: 6, MSE: 73, MAPE: 15%). These findings help entrepreneurs improve inventory strategies, reducing risks of shortages or surpluses