Simulation and Analysis of Gamma Distribution in Assessing Delay Rate Completion of the Curriculum in Schools

Sari, Reni Permata
Muhammad Ihsan Dacholfany
Amir Khushk
Wardhani Utami Dewi

Sciencestatistics: Journal of Statistics, Probability, and Its Application
Vol. 3 No. 1 (2025): JANUARY

Completion of the curriculum on time is one of the important indicators of the success of the learning process. However, various factors such as material difficulty and external distractions often cause delays in curriculum completion. This study aims to model the delay in curriculum completion using Gamma distribution, with the research location at SMP Negeri 1 Melinting, East Lampung. Primary data is obtained from schools, while secondary data comes from related literature. This study uses Monte Carlo simulation based on Gamma distribution with the parameters of mean delay () and degree of variance (). The results showed an average delay of about 2.4 weeks, with the Gamma distribution matching the actual data based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. These findings suggest that the Gamma distribution can be an effective prediction tool for modeling curriculum completion delays. Managerial recommendations include the preparation of flexible schedules and the use of simulation models for risk mitigation. This research contributes to education managers in designing better time and resource management strategiesCompletion of the curriculum on time is one of the important indicators of the success of the learning process. However, various factors such as material difficulty and external distractions often cause delays in curriculum completion. This study aims to model the delay in curriculum completion using Gamma distribution, with the research location at SMP Negeri 1 Melinting, East Lampung. Primary data is obtained from schools, while secondary data comes from related literature. This study uses Monte Carlo simulation based on Gamma distribution with the parameters of mean delay () and degree of variance (). The results showed an average delay of about 2.4 weeks, with the Gamma distribution matching the actual data based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. These findings suggest that the Gamma distribution can be an effective prediction tool for modeling curriculum completion delays. Managerial recommendations include the preparation of flexible schedules and the use of simulation models for risk mitigation. This research contributes to education managers in designing better time and resource management strategies