Journal of Mathematics, Computation and Statistics (JMATHCOS)
Vol. 8 No. 1 (2025): Volume 08 Nomor 01 (April 2025)

Mapping the Relative Risk of Tuberculosis in Indonesia Using the Bayesian Spatial Conditional Autoregressive Leroux Model

Aswi, Aswi (Unknown)
Nurhikmawati, Nurhikmawati (Unknown)
Shanty, Meyrna Vidya (Unknown)
Herman, Nur Taj Alya’ (Unknown)
Sukarna, Sukarna (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
09 Apr 2025

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease caused by infection with the Mycobacterium Tuberculosis bacteria. Indonesia ranks second globally in terms of the number of TB cases, after India, followed by China. Modeling is needed to evaluate the relative risk (RR) of TB cases in Indonesia to identify areas that have a high RR of being infected with the bacteria. One approach used to estimate the RR of TB in Indonesia is Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR). This research aims to identify the RR rate of TB cases in Indonesia using the Bayesian spatial CAR Leroux approach based on TB case data from 2021 to 2022. The best model selection is based on Deviance Information Criteria values, the Watanabe Akaike Information, and residuals from Modified Moran's I. Analysis results shows that in 2021, the Bayesian spatial CAR Leroux Model with Inverse Gamma prior (0.5; 0.5) is the best model. DKI Jakarta Province has the highest while Bali Province has the lowest RR. In 2022, the Bayesian spatial CAR Leroux Model with Inverse Gamma prior (1;0.01) is the best model, with DKI Jakarta Province still having the highest RR, while Bali still has the lowest RR.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

JMATHCOS

Publisher

Subject

Mathematics

Description

Fokus yang didasarkan tidak hanya untuk penelitian dan juga teori-teori pengetahuan yang tidak menerbitkan plagiarism. Ruang lingkup jurnal ini adalah teori matematika, matematika terapan, program perhitungan, perhitungan matematika, statistik, dan statistik ...