Jurnal Pengembangan Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer
Vol 2 No 3 (2018): Maret 2018

Implementasi Metode Gabungan Multi-Factors High Order Fuzzy Time Series dan Fuzzy C-Means Untuk Peramalan Kebutuhan Energi Listrik di Indonesia

Sigit Pangestu (Fakultas Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Brawijaya)
Dian Eka Ratnawati (Fakultas Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Brawijaya)
Candra Dewi (Fakultas Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Brawijaya)



Article Info

Publish Date
18 Aug 2017

Abstract

Indonesia is one of the countries consuming electricity which always experience the increasing need of electric energy every year. Electricity needs in the household sector from 2003 to 2013 in Indonesia increased by an average of 8% per year. While in the commercial sector the average increase of 10.1%. Growing demand for electrical energy should be properly handled in order to avoid the lack of electricity supply that can lead to inhibition of economic activity in Indonesia. Therefore it is needed a program that can help the supplier of electrical energy in Indonesia (PLN) to determine the amount of electrical energy that must be prepared. The Combined method Multi-Factors High Order Fuzzy Time Series and Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) can be used to forecast electrical energy requirements. Fuzzy C-Means replaces one of the processes in the Multi-Factors High Order Fuzzy Time Series method when creating subintervals. The path of the method is the determination of the Universe of Discourse, the determination of the number of clusters, the formation of subintervals with Fuzzy C-Means, the formation of fuzzy sets, the fuzzification process, the formation of Fuzzy Logic Relationship (FLR), and the defuzzification process. From the test results obtained the smallest MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value of 1.7857%. MAPE results obtained that less than 10% indicate that Combined Methods Multi-Factors High Order Fuzzy Time Series and Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) is very good used to forecast electricity demand in Indonesia.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

j-ptiik

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering

Description

Jurnal Pengembangan Teknlogi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer (J-PTIIK) Universitas Brawijaya merupakan jurnal keilmuan dibidang komputer yang memuat tulisan ilmiah hasil dari penelitian mahasiswa-mahasiswa Fakultas Ilmu Komputer Universitas Brawijaya. Jurnal ini diharapkan dapat mengembangkan penelitian ...