<![CDATA[WHO declared that Indonesia is a country at risk of malaria, because of the high rates of malaria morbidity. Government commitment in eradicating malaria has been realized in Malaria elimination program. The program aims to reduce Malaria case to zero in 2030. Starting from 2011, Indonesia suffered a drop in API’s value from 1.75 to 0.84‰. Despite the numerous drop in Malaria cases, some regions are until now suffering from large major outbreaks especially in the eastern Indonesia. The aim of this paper is to predict the trend of malaria morbidity with the API variable value of each targeted area in Indonesia. The prediction method employed in this research was deterministic method using extrapolation trends and probabilistic method using ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) using variation percentage of training and testing data to obtain the best prediction method. Result of this article was API value scenario in Indonesia up to 2030 for every targeted area. Based on the analysis result, the best method to predict the value of API was exponential growth method since it had the smallest MAPE value, which was 38.48 using 80% training data and 20% testing data. Prediction results indicated that the first targeted area had eliminated malaria in 2016, the second targeted area target would eliminated malaria in 2019 and the third targeted area was by 2022. Whereas the fourth targeted area covers Papua, West Papua, East Nusa Tenggara, Maluku and North Maluku had not eliminated malaria until 2030.]]>
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