UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science
Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science

Peramalan Total Nilai Ekspor Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Singular Spectrum Analisis

Ronald Rinaldo (Unknown)
Yenni Kurniawati (Unknown)
Dony Permana (Unknown)
Dina Fitria (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 May 2025

Abstract

Forecasting export data presents unique challenges due to seasonal fluctuations and complex global economic dynamics. Inaccurate forecasts may lead to misguided economic policies, particularly in the export sector, which plays a critical role in national economic growth. This study aims to forecast the total export value of two major sectors in Indonesia from January to December 2024 using the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method. Forecasting is essential in supporting economic policy planning and strategic decision-making. SSA is chosen for its ability to decompose time series data into interpretable components such as trend, seasonality, and noise. The forecasting model's performance is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), which provides an intuitive accuracy interpretation in percentage terms. The optimal parameter for SSA was found at L=28L = 28L=28, yielding a MAPE of 16.63%, indicating good forecasting accuracy. The forecasted export values show that the highest export is expected in December 2024 (USD 39,578.67 million), and the lowest in January 2024 (USD 21,689.14 million). These findings suggest that SSA is effective in forecasting economic time series data, particularly Indonesia’s export values. This study contributes to the practical application of SSA in economics and serves as a reference for future research and policymakers in formulating export strategies.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ujsds

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics Social Sciences

Description

UNP Journal of Statistics and Data Science is an open access journal (e-journal) launched in 2022 by Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Negeri Padang. UJSDS publishes scientific articles on various aspects related to Statistics, Data Science, and its ...