<![CDATA[Fluctuations in the number of foreign tourist arrivals often produce outlier values that can interfere with the accuracy of the forecasting model. This study uses a boxplot approach to detect outliers, followed by Natural Logarithm (ln) transformation as a treatment step. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX) method is applied by considering three exogenous variables that show the effect of variations in the National Holiday calendar in the form of Nyepi Day, Idul Fitri Day and year-end holidays. The results of the analysis show that the three variables have a positive effect on the increase in the number of foreign tourist arrivals, where Nyepi Day makes the largest contribution compared to the other two holiday periods. Model 2 (0,1,1)(1,0,1)[12] was selected as the most optimal model based on the evaluation results of several models that have been compared. This model shows excellent performance, indicated by the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 3.75\% which indicates that the model has very high prediction accuracy. So that the SARIMAX model is effective in modeling and predicting the number of foreign tourist visits in Indonesia.]]>
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