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All Journal Research in the Mathematical and Natural Sciences Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika
Pakaya, Desya Neydi Putri
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Computer Science & IT Education Mathematics

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Prediksi Wisatawan Mancanegara di Indonesia Menggunakan Metode SARIMAX dengan Efek Variasi Kalender Libur Nasional Pakaya, Desya Neydi Putri; Achmad, Novianita; Hasan, Isran K; Wungguli, Djihad; Abdussamad, Siti Nurmardia
Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika Vol 4, No 6 (2025): Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/jrmm.v4i6.34937

Abstract

Fluctuations in the number of foreign tourist arrivals often produce outlier values that can interfere with the accuracy of the forecasting model. This study uses a boxplot approach to detect outliers, followed by Natural Logarithm (ln) transformation as a treatment step. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX) method is applied by considering three exogenous variables that show the effect of variations in the National Holiday calendar in the form of Nyepi Day, Idul Fitri Day and year-end holidays. The results of the analysis show that the three variables have a positive effect on the increase in the number of foreign tourist arrivals, where Nyepi Day makes the largest contribution compared to the other two holiday periods. Model 2 (0,1,1)(1,0,1)[12] was selected as the most optimal model based on the evaluation results of several models that have been compared. This model shows excellent performance, indicated by the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 3.75\% which indicates that the model has very high prediction accuracy. So that the SARIMAX model is effective in modeling and predicting the number of foreign tourist visits in Indonesia.
Penerapan Structural Equation Modelling-Partial Least Square pada Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Keputusan Pembelian Usaha MyCake.Ofc Abdussamad, Siti Nurmardia; Adityaningrum, Amanda; Payu, Muhammad Rezky Friesta; Kudo, Syafri Yandi; Pakaya, Desya Neydi Putri; Darise, Qamarani Zatil Isma
Research in the Mathematical and Natural Sciences Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026): November 2025-April 2026
Publisher : Scimadly Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55657/rmns.v5i1.250

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of product, price, and promotion on purchasing decisions at MyCake.Ofc using the Structural Equation Modeling-Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS) method. Data were collected through questionnaires distributed to 100 respondents in Gorontalo City, selected using purposive sampling techniques. The analysis results show that price has a significant influence on purchasing decisions, while the product and promotion variables do not have a significant effect. The research model has an R-square value of 97.6%, indicating that the product, price, and promotion variables explain 97.6% of the variation in purchasing decisions.. This study highlights the importance of competitive pricing strategies to enhance consumer appeal and purchasing decisions in the food business sector, particularly at MyCake.Ofc.
Co-Authors Darise, Qamarani Zatil Isma Djihad Wungguli Isran K Hasan Kudo, Syafri Yandi Siti Nurmardia Abdussamad