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All Journal Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika
Pakaya, Desya Neydi Putri
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Mathematics

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Prediksi Wisatawan Mancanegara di Indonesia Menggunakan Metode SARIMAX dengan Efek Variasi Kalender Libur Nasional Pakaya, Desya Neydi Putri; Achmad, Novianita; Hasan, Isran K; Wungguli, Djihad; Abdussamad, Siti Nurmardia
Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika Vol 4, No 6 (2025): Jurnal Riset Mahasiswa Matematika
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/jrmm.v4i6.34937

Abstract

Fluctuations in the number of foreign tourist arrivals often produce outlier values that can interfere with the accuracy of the forecasting model. This study uses a boxplot approach to detect outliers, followed by Natural Logarithm (ln) transformation as a treatment step. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (SARIMAX) method is applied by considering three exogenous variables that show the effect of variations in the National Holiday calendar in the form of Nyepi Day, Idul Fitri Day and year-end holidays. The results of the analysis show that the three variables have a positive effect on the increase in the number of foreign tourist arrivals, where Nyepi Day makes the largest contribution compared to the other two holiday periods. Model 2 (0,1,1)(1,0,1)[12] was selected as the most optimal model based on the evaluation results of several models that have been compared. This model shows excellent performance, indicated by the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 3.75\% which indicates that the model has very high prediction accuracy. So that the SARIMAX model is effective in modeling and predicting the number of foreign tourist visits in Indonesia.
Co-Authors Djihad Wungguli Isran K Hasan Siti Nurmardia Abdussamad