Syntax Literate: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia
Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia

Perancangan Prototype Sistem Untuk Forecasting Penjualan Produk: Studi Kasus UMKM

Lubis, Anisa Putri Rahmadani (Unknown)
Setiawan, Agus (Unknown)
Rahman, Aulia Zikri (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
15 Aug 2025

Abstract

The dynamic development of the business world demands that Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) have an accurate and easy-to-use sales forecasting system, considering that many MSMEs still rely on intuitive methods that cause supply chain inefficiencies. This study aims to design a prototype of a multi-method-based sales forecasting system that is adaptive to data characteristics and can be easily operated by MSMEs with various levels of digital literacy. The methodology used includes collecting and analyzing user needs, data pre-processing (including outlier detection and ABC classification), and time series modeling with five methods (ARIMA, Holt-Winters, Prophet, Theta, LightGBM). Model accuracy was evaluated using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) on data divided 70:30 for the training set and test set, while usability was assessed using the System Usability Scale (SUS) with ten non-technical respondents. The test results showed that the system was able to automatically adjust the selection of the best method based on historical product data patterns. The system also achieved an average SUS score of 90, indicating an "excellent" level of usability. Therefore, this prototype has the potential to be a practical sales prediction tool for MSMEs to support data-driven decision-making.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

syntax-literate

Publisher

Subject

Humanities Education Environmental Science Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Social Sciences Other

Description

Syntax Literate: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia is a peer-reviewed scientific journal that publishes original research and critical studies in various fields of science, including education, social sciences, humanities, economics, and engineering. The journal aims to provide a platform for researchers, ...