<![CDATA[Research Originality: The novelty lies in exploring an under-researched topic, with limited studies on the impact of coffee exports from 1993 to 2024, considering key events such as the Asian financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Research Objectives: This study examines the short-term and long-term effects of exchange rates and coffee exports on economic growth. Research Methods: This study utilizes data from 1993 to 2024 on exchange rates, coffee exports, recessions, and economic growth in Indonesia. The analysis is conducted using the ARDL model. Empirical Results: Exchange rate depreciation has a negative impact on GDP in the short term, while past depreciation has a positive effect on economic growth. The value of coffee exports has a marginal positive effect on GDP, while the volume of coffee exports shows inconsistent impacts. Recession does not significantly affect GDP, likely due to policy responses. Long-term estimates show a stable relationship among the variables, with adjustments occurring at a rate of 35.43% per period. Implications: The government should thoroughly evaluate existing policies with a focus on promoting economic growth, while enhancing the quality of Indonesian coffee exports to remain competitive globally.]]>
Copyrights © 2025
