ORBITA: Jurnal Pendidikan dan Ilmu Fisika
Vol 11, No 2 (2025): November

Integration of magnus thermodynamic parameters and machine learning algorithms in rainfall prediction

Aprilia, Ayu (Unknown)
Zakiya, Hanifah (Unknown)
Pauzi, Gurum Ahmad (Unknown)
Supriyanto, Amir (Unknown)
Syafriadi, Syafriadi (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Nov 2025

Abstract

Atmospheric physics is very useful in predicting rainfall, particularly for analyzing air saturation conditions as a prerequisite for condensation. This study aims to model rainfall prediction using thermodynamic parameters, namely relative humidity (RH) and dew point temperature difference (ΔT). These parameters were collected from BMKG Lampung meteorological data (2022–2024) and processed using the Magnus equation. ΔT is important as a sensitive indicator of air unsaturation. The data were statistically analyzed and modeled using a Gradient Boosting Classifier. The results obtained indicate a strong correlation between RH and ΔT and rainfall events (point-biserial correlation of 0.475). Furthermore, ΔT during rainfall is lower (average 2.87°C) and stable, indicating near-saturation conditions. During the evaluation stage, the model achieved 76% accuracy and 84% recall during rainfall. The model's good performance proves the effectiveness of physical parameters as predictive features. Finally, the model was implemented in a Flask-based web application for practical accessibility.

Copyrights © 2025






Journal Info

Abbrev

orbita

Publisher

Subject

Education Physics

Description

ORBITA: Jurnal Kajian, Inovasi, dan Aplikasi Pendidikan Fisika invites and welcomes the submission of advanced research and review papers, innovations and developed selected conference papers that have never been previously publicized. This journal provides publications and a forum to the academics, ...