Journal of Regional Economics Indonesia
Vol. 6 No. 2 (2025): Agustus 2025

Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Dynamics, and Economic Growth in Indonesia: Evidence from a Vector Error Correction Model

Renaldi Renaldi (Economics Development Department, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Merdeka Malang)
Riska Aprilia (Economics Development Department, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Merdeka Malang)
Lutfi Asnan Qodri (Economics Development Department, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Merdeka Malang)



Article Info

Publish Date
31 Aug 2025

Abstract

This study examines the short-run dynamics and long-run relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI), exports, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia using annual time-series data from 1990 to 2024. Employing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the analysis captures both long-term equilibrium relationships and short-term adjustments among the variables. The results reveal the existence of cointegration, indicating a stable long-run relationship. Empirical findings show that, in the long run, FDI has a statistically significant negative effect on economic growth, while imports exert a positive and significant impact. Exports, however, do not demonstrate a significant effect on growth in either the short or long run. These results suggest that FDI inflows in Indonesia are largely concentrated in non-productive sectors, limiting their contribution to sustainable economic growth, whereas imports play a crucial role in supporting industrial production through capital goods and intermediate inputs. The study highlights the importance of redirecting FDI toward high-value-added sectors and maintaining strategic import policies to promote long-term economic growth.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jrei

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

The Journal of Regional Economics Indonesia welcomes studies on the themes of development economics, especially those concerning four main issues, namely: (i) regional finance; (ii) banking; (iii) human resources; and (iv) regional / spatial economics. These four issues are obtained through ...