BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan
Vol 20 No 2 (2026): BAREKENG: Journal of Mathematics and Its Application

HETEROGENEOUS GRAPH NEURAL NETWORKS FOR STOCK PRICE PREDICTION: MODELING TEMPORAL AND CROSS-STOCK DEPENDENCIES

Bukhori, Hilmi Aziz (Unknown)
Aruchunan, Elayaraja (Unknown)
Anam, Syaiful (Unknown)
Bukhori, Saiful (Unknown)
Maulana, Avin (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
26 Jan 2026

Abstract

Stock price prediction remains a challenging task due to the complex interplay of temporal trends and relational dependencies within financial markets. This study proposes the GNN-LSTM Hybrid model, a novel framework that integrates Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) units to simultaneously capture heterogeneous graph structures and temporal dynamics in stock data, leveraging GNNs to model relational dependencies and LSTMs to address long-term temporal patterns, with graph construction based on stock correlation and temporal edge features. Using a dataset covering 1,270 trading days from March 2015 to April 2020, we evaluate the model against traditional methods (ARIMA, LSTM) and modern graph-based approaches (T-GCN, GAT, Transformer-TS, Base GraphSAGE, SAGE-IS). The GNN-LSTM Hybrid achieves superior performance, with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.740 (±0.13), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 1.100 (±0.21), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 4.92% (±1.16), and Directional Accuracy (DA) of 67.0% (±2.7), and significantly outperforms all baselines, as confirmed by paired t-tests (p < 0.05). Hyperparameter analysis reveals that a configuration of 6 GNN layers and a hidden dimension size of 128 optimizes predictive accuracy, balancing computational efficiency (training time: 16.0 ± 0.7 s) and performance. Validation across 100 training epochs further confirms the model’s robust convergence across all metrics. With an inference time of 20.0 ± 1.0 ms, which is competitive compared to baselines like ARIMA (23.5 ± 1.1 ms) and GAT (20.5 ± 1.0 ms), the GNN-LSTM Hybrid demonstrates strong potential for practical financial forecasting, offering a scalable and accurate solution for capturing the multifaceted dynamics of stock markets, with implications for real-time applications and broader economic modeling.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

barekeng

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Energy Engineering Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Physics Transportation

Description

BAREKENG: Jurnal ilmu Matematika dan Terapan is one of the scientific publication media, which publish the article related to the result of research or study in the field of Pure Mathematics and Applied Mathematics. Focus and scope of BAREKENG: Jurnal ilmu Matematika dan Terapan, as follows: - Pure ...