Abstract Background: This retrospective clinical study aimed to evaluate the correlation of copeptin, IL-6, and TNF-α levels with the clinical outcomes of patients with moderate to severe COVID-19. Methods: The study included patients who met the selection criteria and provided written informed consent. A sample size of 41 was determined via power analysis to achieve 80% power at a 0.05 significance level. Consecutive sampling was employed to select participants. The study utilized medical records of patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 who underwent copeptin, IL-6, and TNF-α testing. Correlation analyses and Bonferroni corrections were performed using SPSS® ver. 21. Results: Results revealed a moderate positive correlation between copeptin levels and patient outcomes (Bonferroni correlation: 0.597; p < 0.001). A weak positive correlation was observed between IL-6 levels and outcomes (Bonferroni correlation: 0.239; p = 0.055), while a negligible positive correlation was found for TNF-α levels (Bonferroni correlation: 0.140; p = 0.177), which was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Copeptin emerged as a more sensitive biomarker for predicting the outcomes of COVID-19 patients compared to IL-6 and TNF-α. Elevated copeptin levels were associated with a poorer prognosis. Copeptin emerged as the strongest biomarker in this study, likely due to its role as a surrogate for vasopressin release, signaling a severe inflammatory response. Furthermore, its stability in serum renders copeptin a more sensitive biomarker than IL-6 and TNF-α.
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