<![CDATA[AbstrakPala merupakan komoditas strategis Indonesia yang memiliki posisi dominan dalam pasar global, namun dinamika produksinya menunjukkan pola fluktuatif dalam jangka panjang. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis bagaimana interaksi struktural dalam sistem komoditas pala global mempengaruhi dinamika produksi dan keputusan pada unit mikro petani. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif dengan studi kasus di sentra produksi pala di Kabupaten Fakfak (Papua Barat) dan Kabupaten Halmahera Tengah (Maluku Utara). Analisis dilakukan menggunakan pendekatan berpikir sistem dengan alat Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) untuk mengidentifikasi struktur umpan balik dalam sistem. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sistem komoditas pala dibentuk oleh interaksi antara subsistem budidaya, pasar domestik, dan pasar internasional melalui mekanisme reinforcing dan balancing loops. Harga ekspor sebagai variabel eksternal memengaruhi harga produsen dan pendapatan petani, yang kemudian membentuk keputusan perawatan, penanaman baru, dan replanting. Namun, respons produksi bersifat tertunda akibat adanya jeda biologis 5–7 tahun pada fase Tanaman Belum Menghasilkan menuju Tanaman Menghasilkan. Interaksi antara penguatan berbasis insentif ekonomi dan penyeimbangan berbasis stok, biaya, pasokan global, serta penuaan tanaman menghasilkan pola perilaku siklikal dalam jangka menengah dan panjang. Dengan demikian, dinamika produksi pala Indonesia merupakan hasil struktur sistem yang endogen, di mana keputusan mikro petani tidak dapat dipisahkan dari tekanan pasar global dan karakter biologis tanaman berumur panjang.Kata kunci: struktur, perkebunan, dinamika produksi, komoditas.Abstract Nutmeg is a strategic commodity for Indonesia with a dominant position in the global market; however, its production dynamics exhibit long-term fluctuations. This study aims to analyze how structural interactions within the global nutmeg commodity system influence production dynamics and decision-making at the micro-level of farmers. A qualitative case study approach was employed in major nutmeg-producing regions, namely Fakfak Regency (West Papua) and Central Halmahera Regency (North Maluku). Data were analyzed using a system thinking approach through the development of a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) to identify the endogenous feedback structure underlying the system The findings reveal that the nutmeg commodity system is shaped by interactions among the cultivation subsystem, the domestic market, and the international market through reinforcing and balancing feedback loops. Export prices, as an external variable, influence producer prices and farmers’ income, which subsequently shape decisions on crop maintenance, new planting, and replanting. However, production responses are delayed due to the biological lag of 5–7 years between the immature and productive stages of nutmeg trees. The interaction between economically driven reinforcing loops and balancing mechanisms related to stock availability, production costs, global supply, and plant aging generates cyclical behavior in medium- and long-term production dynamics. Indonesia’s nutmeg production dynamics therefore emerge from an endogenous system structure in which micro-level farmer decisions are inseparable from global market pressures and the biological characteristics of a long-lived perennial crop.Keywords: structure, plantation, production dynamics, commodity.]]>
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