Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan
Vol. 17 No. 1 (2024): Vol. 17, No. 1, Februari 2024 (pp.1-154)

Towards Equity: Projecting and Converging the Human Development Index in Indonesia

Nayaka Artha Wicesa, (Unknown)
Axellina Muara Setyanti (Unknown)
Silvi Asna Prestianawati (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
14 Oct 2025

Abstract

Human development has become an imperative for Indonesia amid the ongoingdemographic bonus. However, various challenges persist in the realm of humandevelopment in the country, as evidenced by disparities in Human Development Index(HDI) achievements. This research aims to project Indonesia's HDI for the years 2023, 2024,2035, and the "Golden Indonesia" period in 2045 to discern the developmental trajectory ofHDI and its disparities. Additionally, it seeks to measure the convergence of Indonesia's HDIto attain equitable development. The results of the trend projection estimations indicate thatIndonesia's HDI is projected to be 73.74 in 2023 and 74.28 in 2024, which is anticipated to fallbelow the target set by the government, aiming for an HDI of 75.54 in 2024. Indonesia's HDIis projected to reach 80.22 in 2035 and 85.62 in 2045, categorizing it as 'Very High,' aligningwith the vision for the Golden Indonesia in 2045. Furthermore, conditional convergenceanalysis results indicate that it would take 75 years for provinces with lower HDI to catch upwith those with higher HDI, achieving zero inequality. Based on the estimation results, it isfound that Per Capita Spending on Educational Functions is a significant variableinfluencing HDI convergence.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

jekt

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan is a journal that is focused as an empirical means of publication of scientific papers with emphasis contents of the article on the use of quantitative analysis tools (econometrics, parametric and non-parametric statistics, descriptive statistics, input-output, ...