International Journal of Social Science, Educational, Economics, Agriculture Research, and Technology (IJSET)
Vol. 5 No. 7 (2026): JUNE

THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATES AND INFLATION ON THE MONEY SUPPLY IN INDONESIA: AN AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (ARDL) APPROACH

Misbachudin (Universitas Islam Negeri Siber Syekh Nurjati Cirebon)
Fakhri Ahmad Zainunnuri (Universitas Islam Negeri Siber Syekh Nurjati Cirebon)
Neng Ulpa Apipah (Universitas Islam Negeri Siber Syekh Nurjati Cirebon)
Syaeful Bakhri (Universitas Islam Negeri Siber Syekh Nurjati Cirebon)
Abdul Aziz (Universitas Islam Negeri Siber Syekh Nurjati Cirebon)



Article Info

Publish Date
24 May 2026

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effects of inflation and exchange rates on the money supply in Indonesia and to identify the short-term and long-term relationships among these variables. A country’s economic stability is inextricably linked to the dynamics of inflation, exchange rates, and the money supply, which are interrelated within the economic system. This study employs a quantitative approach using secondary data obtained from Bank Indonesia and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) for the period 2020-2024. The analysis method used is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, as it is capable of estimating both short-term and long-term relationships simultaneously within a single model. The results indicate a long-term relationship among inflation, exchange rates, and the money supply. Partially, the exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on the money supply in Indonesia. This suggests that changes in the exchange rate particularly when the rupiah depreciates can drive increased liquidity in the economy through monetary policy mechanisms and international trade activities. Meanwhile, inflation does not have a significant effect on the money supply in the short term. This indicates that changes in inflation during the study period did not directly influence money supply policy due to the inflation control policies implemented by Bank Indonesia. Thus, exchange rate stability is a critical factor that must be considered in maintaining monetary equilibrium and national economic stability. Keywords: Exchange Rate, Inflation, Money Supply, Monetary Policy, ARDL

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

ijset

Publisher

Subject

Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education

Description

International Journal of Social Science, Educational, Economics, Agriculture Research, and Technology (IJSET) is an international journal that publishes popular articles in the fields of Social Science, Education, Economics, Agricultural Research, and Technology. IJSET is published every month in ...