Zeniusi Journal
Vol 3 No 1 (2026): Vol III. No I. Juni 2026

The Effect of Inflation and the Open Unemployment Rate on the Number of Poor People In North Sumatra

Dwi Susanti (Universitas Negeri Medan, Sumatera Utara, Indonesia.)



Article Info

Publish Date
25 Jun 2026

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation and the open unemployment rate on the number of poor people in North Sumatra Province during the period 2007–2020. The focus of this study is to determine the extent to which macroeconomic factors such as inflation and unemployment affect poverty levels in areas with diverse economic structures between urban and rural areas. This study uses a quantitative approach with secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency  (BPS). The analytical method used is multiple linear regression with the Ordinary Least Square  (OLS) approach, and is complemented by classical assumption tests such as normality, autocorrelation, multicollinearity, and heteroscedasticity tests to ensure the model used meets the BLUE  (Best Linear Unbiased Estimator) criteria. The results of the study indicate that partially, the unemployment variable has a positive and significant effect on poverty with a probability value of 0.0006 <0.05, which means that every 1 percent increase in unemployment increases the number of poor people by 0.0419 percent. Meanwhile, inflation also has a positive and significant effect on poverty with a probability value of 0.0305 < 0.05, where every 1 percent increase in inflation increases the number of poor people by 0.0722 percent. Simultaneously, inflation and unemployment have a significant effect on poverty with an R-Squared value of 0.6684. This finding emphasizes the importance of inflation control policies and job creation as strategic efforts to reduce poverty levels in North Sumatra Province.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

zj

Publisher

Subject

Education Other

Description

Zeniusi Journal - (E-ISSN: 3063-6027) is a peer-reviewed academic journal published by Insan Zenius Ilmiah. This journal aims to provide a platform for researchers, academics, and practitioners to share research findings and innovative insights in the fields of education, economics, and science. We ...