Jurnal Pengembangan Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer
Vol 1 No 12 (2017): Desember 2017

Prediksi Volume Impor Beras Nasional dengan Metode Multi-Factors High-Order Fuzzy Time Series

Nendiana Putri (Fakultas Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Brawijaya)
Edy Santoso (Fakultas Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Brawijaya)
Sigit Adinugroho (Fakultas Ilmu Komputer, Universitas Brawijaya)



Article Info

Publish Date
04 Aug 2017

Abstract

A good self-sufficient of rice support is needed to save some foreign exchange reserves that used to import rice. An accurate rice import volume prediction is needed to make a strategic plans for keeping management of rice support stability. Fuzzy time series is one of prediction methods which use past data pattern to projects data in the future. There are some fuzzy time series method's models, one of those models is multi-factors high-order time series model. This method distributes data into several subintervals with different length, depending on centroids that came from clustering process with fuzzy C-Means method. Advantage from using multi-factors high-order time series model is this model uses more than one order and antecedent factor to build a fuzzy logic relationship. Antecedent factors that used in this case are rice productions and consumption factors that affect Indonesia's rice import volume. Minimum value of Normalised Root Mean Squared Error (NRMSE) obtained 0.298 in this study. NRMSE value which is almost zero shows that multi-factors high-order fuzzy time series method is a good method for rice import volume prediction.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

j-ptiik

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Control & Systems Engineering Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering

Description

Jurnal Pengembangan Teknlogi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer (J-PTIIK) Universitas Brawijaya merupakan jurnal keilmuan dibidang komputer yang memuat tulisan ilmiah hasil dari penelitian mahasiswa-mahasiswa Fakultas Ilmu Komputer Universitas Brawijaya. Jurnal ini diharapkan dapat mengembangkan penelitian ...