<![CDATA[Aggregate tourism growth in developing economies does not automatically translate into spatially equitable outcomes, as economic gains persistently concentrate in dominant nodes while surrounding villages remain structurally excluded. This study introduces longitudinal K-Means clustering combined with cluster transition mapping to track village economic mobility in Gianyar Regency, Bali across 2021–2023. Data covering 70 villages were analyzed using Adjusted Rand Index, transition tabulation, and multiple inequality indices to ensure cluster stability and spatial interpretability. Results reveal accelerating spatial bifurcation, with 72.9 percent of transitional villages reclassified into the peripheral tier by 2023 and tourism facility inequality surging from 20.03 to 54.62 times across tiers. Upward mobility to the hub tier was entirely absent throughout the observation period. These findings qualify convergence assumptions in both Growth Pole Theory and Hirschman's trickling-down framework through mechanistically distinct pathways: hub growth raises commercial viability thresholds that structurally foreclose peripheral entry, while backwash dominance operates as a potential steady state rather than a transitional precursor to spread. Policy responses must be tier-differentiated, with hub villages requiring investment redirection, transitional villages requiring supply chain integration, and peripheral villages requiring state-led infrastructure equalization as a prerequisite for economic participation.]]>
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