Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science (UJMC)
Vol. 12 No. 1 (2026): Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computer Science

Penerapan Model Logistik Fraksional dalam Memproyeksikan Jumlah Penduduk di Kabupaten Indramayu Tahun 2025-2030

Lu’lu Nurzahra (Universitas Jenderal Soedirman)
Isnu Aji Saputro Isnu (Universitas Jenderal Soedirman)
Noor Sofiyati (Universitas Jenderal Soedirman)



Article Info

Publish Date
30 Jun 2026

Abstract

The continuous growth in population necessitates accurate projections as a foundation for regional development planning. This study aims to apply a fractional logistic model employing the conformable fractional derivative to project the population of Indramayu Regency for the period 2025–2030. The research was conducted using population data from Indramayu Regency spanning the 2020–2024 period, with two fractional orders, namely α = 0,8 and α = 0,2, each comprising four model variations. The accuracy of the models was evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The findings indicate that Model III with a fractional order of α = 0.8 yields the highest accuracy, with a MAPE value of 0.121669%. Based on this model, the population of Indramayu Regency is projected to increase from 1,943,094 inhabitants in 2025 to 1,991,027 inhabitants in 2030. The results demonstrate that the conformable fractional logistic model is capable of providing population projections with excellent accuracy, thereby offering a potential alternative for population-data-based development planning.

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Journal Info

Abbrev

ujmc

Publisher

Subject

Computer Science & IT Education Mathematics

Description

Unisda Journal of Mathematics and Computational Science (UJMC) is a research journal published by Mathematics Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences Unisda Lamongan with the scope of pure mathematics, applied science, education, ...