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Prediksi Harga Saham Syariah dengan Triple Exponential Smoothing Multiplicative Sofiyati, Noor; Saputro, Isnu Aji; Puspita, Dian
Square : Journal of Mathematics and Mathematics Education Vol. 6 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : UIN Walisongo Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21580/square.2024.6.2.23602

The prediction of sharia stock prices is currently an important concern for investors who want to invest according to Islamic principles. Investors generally invest to achieve profits, which are measured by the magnitude of returns or the rate of return on those sharia-compliant stocks. However, there is also a risk of loss if the investor makes the wrong decision. Often, investors simply guess whether the stock price will go up or down. In sharia stock analysis, accurate forecasting techniques are needed to help investors minimize risk and maximize potential returns. This research aims to predict the stock price of Bank Syariah Indonesia (BRIS. JK), which is one of the sharia stocks highly sought after by stock investors. The prediction for the next year is conducted using the multiplicative triple exponential smoothing method as a guide for investors in decision-making. This method was chosen because of its ability to capture seasonal patterns and trends based on historical stock data. The forecasting results show that the price of BRIS.JK shares will continue to rise over the next year. This provides valuable information for investors to consider investing in that stock. Keywords: predictions, sharia shares, triple exponential smoothing.

Stability analysis of Monkeypox virus transmission dynamics using the SEIVR approach Setyowisnu, Glagah Eskacakra; Saputro, Isnu Aji; Fikri, Mohamad Izudin; Rahmawati, Rahayu Nur; Ramdhanu, Ade Bagus
Journal of Evidence-based Nursing and Public Health Vol. 2 No. 2: (August) 2025
Publisher : Institute for Advanced Science, Social, and Sustainable Future

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61511/jevnah.v2i02.2025.1837

Backgorund: Monkeypox is a zoonotic infection caused by the monkeypox virus (MONKEYPOXV), which has the potential to be transmitted from animals to humans. This virus can be transmitted through direct contact with infected animals such as monkeys, rats, and squirrels. In 2023, the World Health Organization classified monkeypox as a global pandemic, prompting stricter prevention measures worldwide. Given the significant increase in the number of cases and the challenges in controlling the spread of the virus, this study aims to develop a SEIVR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Vaccinated, Recovered) mathematical model that can describe the dynamics of the spread of the monkeypox virus in Indonesia. Methods: There are two cases of the SEIVR model that will be studied; those are disease-free and endemic cases. From the cases, the stability of the model will be found. The Routh-Hurwitz criterion will also be used to analyze the stability due to the complexity of the eigenvalues. Findings: In the study conducted, simulations indicated that the infected population would coexist or remain for a fairly long time. This phenomenon is caused by the stable nature of the model. The dynamics of the model can also be seen by considering the obtained reproductive number. Although the infected population persists for a long time, the numbers are quite low. Conclusion: Vaccination does not have a significant impact. Therefore, further research using a treatment compartment or virus transition in rodents needs to be conducted for further study. Novelty/Originality of this Article: The novelty of this research lies in the use of the SEIVR model to map the spread of monkeypox in Indonesia and analyze its stability using the Routh-Hurwitz criteria and numerical simulations. This approach provides an initial overview of case persistence and vaccination effectiveness.

Prediksi Harga Saham Syariah dengan Triple Exponential Smoothing Multiplicative Sofiyati, Noor; Saputro, Isnu Aji; Puspita, Dian
Square : Journal of Mathematics and Mathematics Education Vol. 6 No. 2 (2024)
Publisher : UIN Walisongo Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21580/square.2024.6.2.23602

The prediction of sharia stock prices is currently an important concern for investors who want to invest according to Islamic principles. Investors generally invest to achieve profits, which are measured by the magnitude of returns or the rate of return on those sharia-compliant stocks. However, there is also a risk of loss if the investor makes the wrong decision. Often, investors simply guess whether the stock price will go up or down. In sharia stock analysis, accurate forecasting techniques are needed to help investors minimize risk and maximize potential returns. This research aims to predict the stock price of Bank Syariah Indonesia (BRIS. JK), which is one of the sharia stocks highly sought after by stock investors. The prediction for the next year is conducted using the multiplicative triple exponential smoothing method as a guide for investors in decision-making. This method was chosen because of its ability to capture seasonal patterns and trends based on historical stock data. The forecasting results show that the price of BRIS.JK shares will continue to rise over the next year. This provides valuable information for investors to consider investing in that stock. Keywords: predictions, sharia shares, triple exponential smoothing.

DYNAMICAL ANALYSIS OF SVEIR MODEL IN SPREAD OF THE MONKEYPOX DISEASE WITH TIME DELAY Saputro, Isnu Aji; Setyowisnu, Glagah Eskacakra; Sofiyati, Noor; Puspita, Dian
Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol 17 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika (JMP)
Publisher : Universitas Jenderal Soedirman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20884/1.jmp.2025.17.2.17707

Monkeypox is an infectious disease whose spread is influenced by various epidemiological factors, one of which is the incubation period. This study developed a mathematical model of Monkeypox, SVEIR, by incorporating a time delay in the transition from an exposed individual to an infectious individual, representing the incubation period. Model analysis shows that the system has two equilibrium points: a disease-free state and an endemic state. Based on the simulation results, a threshold value (tau* ) is obtained, which plays a crucial role in disease control. If the incubation period is below the threshold ( tau<tau*), then R0>1 , and the disease will spread endemically. Conversely, if the incubation period exceeds the threshold (tau>tau* ), then R0<1 , and the disease will disappear from the population

ASYMPTOTIC STUDY OF NONLINEAR SPRING OSCILLATION WITH EXTERNAL FORCE USING THE MULTIPLE TIME SCALES METHOD Setyowisnu, Glagah Eskacakra; Muzdalifah, Lilik; Saputro, Isnu Aji
Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol 17 No 2 (2025): Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika (JMP)
Publisher : Universitas Jenderal Soedirman

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20884/1.jmp.2025.17.2.18081

A nonlinear spring is a type of oscillator that does not follow Hooke's law perfectly. In mathematics, this type of oscillator can be modeled in a nonlinear ordinary differential equation. Of the many discussions on oscillation models, one examines the behavior of the model when disturbed by a parameter with a very small value. In this study, a discussion will be conducted regarding the behavior of the oscillation model with external forces added to the disturbance parameters in the damping and spring stiffness terms. To observe this behavior, one of the techniques in asymptotic analysis called the multiple time scales method is used. The results of this study will show the behavior of the oscillation model with the disturbance parameters caused by the resonance that occurs. To provide a clearer picture, the oscillations that occur are presented in the form of a simulation result graph, containing a comparison between the approximate solution and the numerical solution. Based on the discussion given, it is concluded that the oscillations in the model are strongly influenced by a certain relationship between the natural frequency of the nonlinear spring and the frequency of the external force acting on the model.

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