BIP'S : Jurnal Bisnis Perspektif
Vol. 18 No. 2 (2026): Juli

Beyond the Price: How Trading Activity Shapes Bitcoin Volatility

Diky Paramitha (Universitas Terbuka)
Etik Ipda Riyani (Universitas Terbuka)
Nadhira Hardiana (Universitas Terbuka)
Kan Wen Huey (Wawasan Open University)



Article Info

Publish Date
21 Jul 2026

Abstract

Bitcoin has a tendency of price volatility that is much higher than other cryptocurrency assets, this makes a very significant difference from other financial assets that can go beyond conventional market logic thus creating a major obstacle in risk management. This study aims to dissect the extreme anomalies of bitcoin trading volume against the volatility of Bitcoin returns. Using a quantitative time series approach, the study analyzed monthly data on bitcoin price and trading volume using Bitcoin prices in the period February 2015 to December 2025. We assess volatility using the GARCH-X model to introduce trading volume as an exogenous variable. The basic GARCH shows significant volatility persistence, indicating a clustering of high volatility in Bitcoin's returns. This finding results that trading volume is not just a static transaction number but reflects a very crucial information proxy. Every movement of trading activity generates new signals in which aggressive price react. Trading volume is also highly correlated with the volatility of returns, although the volatility of the model indicates the need for careful interpretation. Bitcoin's volatility is not solely due to historical volatility dynamics, but also the impetus from trading activity, highlighting the need to consider accurate volatility modeling in the digital asset market. This research adds value by embedding trading volumes into the GARCH model to evaluate its contribution in explaining Bitcoin's volatility through empirical insights for investment decisions and risk management in the cryptocurrency market

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Journal Info

Abbrev

BIP

Publisher

Subject

Economics, Econometrics & Finance

Description

BIPs Jurnal Bisnis Perspekti merupakan jurnal ilmiah yang diterbitkan oleh Fakultas Ekonomi Unika Darma Cendika Surabaya. BIPs Jurnal Bisnis Perspektif sebelumnya bernama Jurnal Darma Cendika Manajemen & Akuntansi, yang ditujukan terutama untuk mempublikasikan pemikiran, gagasan, hasil kajian, dan ...