Predicting the current and future distributions of Pinus merkusii in Southeast Asia under climate change

MUHAMMAD NUR SULTON (Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Sebelas Maret. Jl. Ir. Sutami 36A Surakarta 57126, Central Java, Indonesia)
DEVI MAYANG AURINA (Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Sebelas Maret. Jl. Ir. Sutami 36A Surakarta 57126, Central Java, Indonesia)
FARHAN MUHAMMAD (Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Sebelas Maret. Jl. Ir. Sutami 36A Surakarta 57126, Central Java, Indonesia)
FARIZ PRADHANA ADIL FADZILAH (Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Sebelas Maret. Jl. Ir. Sutami 36A Surakarta 57126, Central Java, Indonesia)
ZAHRA HANUN (Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Sebelas Maret. Jl. Ir. Sutami 36A Surakarta 57126, Central Java, Indonesia)
MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN (Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Sebelas Maret. Jl. Ir. Sutami 36A Surakarta 57126, Central Java, Indonesia)
SUGENG BUDIHARTA (Purwodadi Botanic Gardens, Research Centre for Plant Conservation, Botanical Gardens and Forestry, National Research and Innovation Agency. Jl. Raya Surabaya-Malang Km. 65, Purwodadi, Pasuruan 67163, East Java, Indonesia)
JATNA SUPRIATNA (Department of Biology, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Indonesia. Jl. Prof. Dr. Sudjono D. Pusponegoro, Kampus UI, Depok 16424, West Java, Indonesia)
ILYAS NURSAMSI (School of Earth and Environmental Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Queensland. St Lucia 4072, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia)
AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN (Department of Environmental Science, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Sebelas Maret. Jl. Ir. Sutami 36A Surakarta 57126, Central Java, Indonesia)

Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity
Vol. 25 No. 3 (2024)

Abstract. Sulton MN, Aurina DM, Muhammad F, Fadzilah FPA, Hanun Z, Indrawan M, Budiharta S, Supriatna J, Nursamsi I, Setyawan AD. 2024. Predicting the current and future distributions of Pinus merkusii in Southeast Asia under climate change. Biodiversitas 25: 1135-1143. Pinus merkusii Jungh. Et de Vriese is a native pine species of Southeast Asia with primary distribution in Indonesia, especially in the mountainous areas of northern Sumatra. The P. merkusii has an important role in the forest ecosystem including maintaining ecosystem stability, reducing soil erosion, and providing habitat for various types of flora and fauna. Climate change is expected to affect the growth, development and distribution of plants, so this study aims to predicting the current dan future distribution of P. merkusii in Southeast Asia under climate change. We used Maxent and Geographic Information System (GIS), which incorporated bioclimatic, edaphic, and UVB radiation variables, to predict the suitable areas of P. merkusii under current and future climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) and three time periods (2030, 2050, and 2080). Our findings indicate that compared to current, there will be an increase of suitable areas for P. merkusii in 2030 across all climate scenarios with RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 represent 9.53%, 9.66%, 9.73%, and 9.91% of Southeast Asia terrestrial area, respectively. In 2050, such increase will continue under all climate scenarios with RCP 4.5 has the largest proportion of suitable area (10.39%). However, in 2080, the suitable areas are likely to reduce compared with 2050 with RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 have a percentage of 9.21%, 9.69%, 10.29%, and 9.81%, respectively. Our predictions showed that there will be a geographical shift of suitable area of P. merkusii into higher elevation and low latitude, migrating southeastward. Our findings about the potential future distribution of P. merkusii might be used as a reference for cultivation according to predicted suitable areas in the future.