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All Journal Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity
ILYAS NURSAMSI
School of Earth and Environmental Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Queensland. St Lucia 4072, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology

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Projecting expansion range of Selaginella zollingeriana in the Indonesian archipelago under future climate condition AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN; JATNA SUPRIATNA; NISYAWATI NISYAWATI; ILYAS NURSAMSI; SUTARNO SUTARNO; SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO; SUNARTO SUNARTO; PRAKASH PRADAN; SUGENG BUDIHARTA; ARI PITOYO; SAPTA SUHARDONO; PRABANG SETYONO; MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN
Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity Vol. 22 No. 4 (2021)
Publisher : Society for Indonesian Biodiversity

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/biodiv/d220458

Abstract

Abstract. Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Nursamsi I, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Sunarto, Pradan P, Budiharta S, Pitoyo A, Suhardono S, Setyono P, Indrawan M. 2021. Projecting expansion range of Selaginella zollingeriana in the Indonesian archipelago under future climate conditions. Biodiversitas 22: 2088-2103. The expansion of plant species to outside areas of its original localities has attracted great interest in theoretical ecology. The scientific curiosity of such phenomenon is even deeper when the geographical expansion is confined by natural boundaries and affected by environmental changes, including climates. This study aimed to predict the current suitable habitat niche of Selaginella zollingeriana Spring, a species with original distribution in Java Island, and to project its potential suitable niche in the Indonesian archipelago accounting for future climate conditions. In doing so, we applied the Ecological Niche Modelings (ENMs) using MaxEnt algorithm by employing 30 presence data of S. zollingeriana and twelve enviro-climatic variables. The model predicted around 17.22% (22,095 km2) of the Java Island area is potentially suitable for current habitat niche of S. zollingeriana, consisting of 10.93% (14,028 km2), 4.75% (6,097 km2), and 1.54% (1,970 km2) of low, medium, and high suitability areas, respectively. Under future scenarios, the model predicted the possibility of species expansion into the other four big islands (i.e., Sumatera, Borneo, Sulawesi, and Papua). Nonetheless, the model also predicted a declining trend of the availability of suitable niches wherein from 2030 to 2080 the modeled niche declined about 58% and 59% under the most optimistic and most pessimistic climate change projections, respectively. While this study provides a primary example in predicting species expansion in tropical archipelago, similar studies in a range of contexts (e.g., species, region) are recommended to add more evidence to strengthen the theoretical ground of expansion ecology under climate changes.
Anticipated climate changes reveal shifting in habitat suitability of high-altitude selaginellas in Java, Indonesia AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN; Jatna Supriatna; Nisyawati; Ilyas Nursamsi; SUTARNO SUTARNO; SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO; SUNARTO SUNARTO; Prakash Pradan; SUGENG BUDIHARTA; ARI PITOYO; SAPTA SUHARDONO; PRABANG SETYONO; MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN
Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity Vol. 21 No. 11 (2020)
Publisher : Society for Indonesian Biodiversity

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/biodiv/d211157

Abstract

Abstract. Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Nursamsi I, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Sunarto, Pradan P, Budiharta S, Pitoyo A, Suhardono S, Setyono P, Indrawan M. 2020. Anticipated climate changes reveal shifting in habitat suitability of high-altitude selaginellas in Java, Indonesia. Biodiversitas 21: 5482-5497. High-altitude ecosystems with humid and cool climate are the preferred habitat for some Selaginella species (selaginellas). Such habitats are available in Java, Indonesia, which also has fertile soils with rich mineral contents resulted from volcanic activities. However, the high-altitude ecosystems in Java are threatened by various anthropogenic activities as well as changes in climate conditions, potentially affecting some Selaginella species. This study aimed to investigate the shift in suitable habitat of four species of high-altitude Selaginella spp. (Selaginella involvens, S. opaca, S. ornata, and S. remotifolia) in Java Island under current and future climate conditions predicted by several representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Presence data of Selaginella localities were collected from field survey between 2007 and 2014 across the island, as well as occurrence points from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database. A total of 1,721 occurrence points data along with environmental and climate data were used to develop species distribution models using MaxEnt. Future habitat distributions were projected under four climate scenarios to see the shift in suitable habitat and altitudinal ranges. The results showed that the distribution of the four high-altitude Selaginella species are strongly influenced by altitude, annual average temperature, and annual rainfall. In the present time, 37.32% (48,974 km2) of the area of Java has been predicted to be suitable for high-altitude Selaginella. Under the optimistic climate scenario (RCP 2.6), the highly suitable area will likely to decrease by almost 35% in the year 2080, whereas the medium and low suitable areas will reduce by about 37.2% and 18.3%, respectively. Under the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5), about 21.2% of low suitable areas will be lost in 2080, whereas the medium and highly suitable areas are predicted to decrease by around 38.1% and 33.4%, respectively. Under the pessimistic scenario, there will be upward shift by 51.1 m in the year 2030 from the current’s mean altitude and will shift by almost 150 m in the year 2080. The maximum altitude of predicted suitable habitat is also predicted to increase to reach almost 3500 m asl in the year 2080. The results of this study imply that habitat shift of four high-altitude Selaginella species varies depending on the scenario, but in all cases, the losses are greater than gains.
Predicting the current and future distributions of Pinus merkusii in Southeast Asia under climate change MUHAMMAD NUR SULTON; DEVI MAYANG AURINA; FARHAN MUHAMMAD; FARIZ PRADHANA ADIL FADZILAH; ZAHRA HANUN; MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN; SUGENG BUDIHARTA; JATNA SUPRIATNA; ILYAS NURSAMSI; AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN
Biodiversitas Journal of Biological Diversity Vol. 25 No. 3 (2024)
Publisher : Society for Indonesian Biodiversity

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.13057/biodiv/d250328

Abstract

Abstract. Sulton MN, Aurina DM, Muhammad F, Fadzilah FPA, Hanun Z, Indrawan M, Budiharta S, Supriatna J, Nursamsi I, Setyawan AD. 2024. Predicting the current and future distributions of Pinus merkusii in Southeast Asia under climate change. Biodiversitas 25: 1135-1143. Pinus merkusii Jungh. Et de Vriese is a native pine species of Southeast Asia with primary distribution in Indonesia, especially in the mountainous areas of northern Sumatra. The P. merkusii has an important role in the forest ecosystem including maintaining ecosystem stability, reducing soil erosion, and providing habitat for various types of flora and fauna. Climate change is expected to affect the growth, development and distribution of plants, so this study aims to predicting the current dan future distribution of P. merkusii in Southeast Asia under climate change. We used Maxent and Geographic Information System (GIS), which incorporated bioclimatic, edaphic, and UVB radiation variables, to predict the suitable areas of P. merkusii under current and future climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) and three time periods (2030, 2050, and 2080). Our findings indicate that compared to current, there will be an increase of suitable areas for P. merkusii in 2030 across all climate scenarios with RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 represent 9.53%, 9.66%, 9.73%, and 9.91% of Southeast Asia terrestrial area, respectively. In 2050, such increase will continue under all climate scenarios with RCP 4.5 has the largest proportion of suitable area (10.39%). However, in 2080, the suitable areas are likely to reduce compared with 2050 with RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 have a percentage of 9.21%, 9.69%, 10.29%, and 9.81%, respectively. Our predictions showed that there will be a geographical shift of suitable area of P. merkusii into higher elevation and low latitude, migrating southeastward. Our findings about the potential future distribution of P. merkusii might be used as a reference for cultivation according to predicted suitable areas in the future.
Co-Authors AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN AHMAD DWI SETYAWAN ARI PITOYO DEVI MAYANG AURINA FARHAN MUHAMMAD FARIZ PRADHANA ADIL FADZILAH JATNA SUPRIATNA JATNA SUPRIATNA MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN MUHAMMAD INDRAWAN MUHAMMAD NUR SULTON Nisyawati NISYAWATI NISYAWATI PRABANG SETYONO PRAKASH PRADAN SAPTA SUHARDONO SUGENG BUDIHARTA SUGENG BUDIHARTA SUGIYARTO SUGIYARTO SUNARTO SUNARTO SUTARNO SUTARNO ZAHRA HANUN