Pendas : Jurnah Ilmiah Pendidikan Dasar
Vol. 11 No. 02 (2026): Volume 11 Nomor 02, Juni 2026 Published

ANALISIS DETERMINAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA: MODEL AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (ARDL)

Azmiya, Silma (Unknown)
Rahma Nurjanah (Unknown)
Yohanes Vyn Amzar (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
13 Jun 2026

Abstract

This research focuses on examining the interactions between fluctuations in the exchange rate, the BI Rate, the money supply, and inflation in Indonesia. It also looks into how the exchange rate, the BI Rate, and the money supply influence the inflation rate in the country. This analysis relies on annual time series data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank Indonesia, and other related sources covering the years 2005 to 2024. The model employed is the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), which identity to explore both short-term and long-term interrelations among the variables. The findings reveal that the fluctuations in the exchange rate, BI Rate, money supply, and inflation in Indonesia exhibit considerable variation throughout the analyzed period. According to the estimation outcomes, the BI Rate positively and significantly influences inflation in both the short and long term, whereas the money supply ratio to GDP negatively and significantly affects inflation. Conversely, the exchange rate does not influence inflation significantly. Collectively, these three variables have a noteworthy impact on inflation in Indonesia. This study highlights the importance of monetary policy, especially in regard to interest rate and money supply management, in ensuring inflation stability in Indonesia

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Journal Info

Abbrev

pendas

Publisher

Subject

Other

Description

Pendas : Jurnah Ilmiah Pendidikan Dasar is a journal published twice a year, namely in June and December that aims to be a forum for scientific publications to pour ideas and studies complemented with the results of research related to primary school education. To achieve this, basic education ...