Enigma in Economics
Vol. 4 No. 1 (2026): Enigma in Economics

Cyclical Timing Across Asset Classes: A Structured Narrative Review of Market Cycle Theory in Equities, Gold, and Cryptocurrency

Abdul Malik (Department of Economics Education, SSRI Research Institute, Batam, Indonesia)
Anies Fatmawati (Department of Commercial Law, Enigma Institute, Palembang, Indonesia)



Article Info

Publish Date
20 Aug 2026

Abstract

Background. Cycle theory — the practice of reading prices as a nested hierarchy of cycles measured from one low to the next — is a cross-asset tradition applied to equity indices, gold and, most recently, cryptocurrency. Objective. This structured narrative review appraises the conceptual coherence and empirical support for cyclical, low-to-low market timing across three asset classes: the S&P 500 equity index, gold, and Bitcoin. Methods. We distinguish the specific, quantified practitioner rules (fixed day/week counts, tolerance bands and an asserted ~80% hit rate) from the general, peer-reviewed proposition that returns are conditionally predictable, and appraise the plausibility of the former through the evidence on the latter rather than testing the rules directly. Following SANRA guidance, we report an explicit search strategy, eligibility criteria and a DOI-authenticated corpus, and grade each core tenet with a pre-specified rubric rather than an ad-hoc numeric score. Results. The evidence is asymmetric and consistent across markets: an identifiable cyclical anchor, time-varying (adaptive) efficiency, and the amplifying association of behavioural forces are well supported, whereas a mechanically periodic multi-year cycle and high-accuracy timing of individual lows are of limited and very limited support and are vulnerable to survivorship and data-snooping biases. We contribute an integrative reflexive framework, falsifiable predictions, and a transparent evidence-grading scorecard. Conclusion. Cycle theory is best understood not as a deterministic clock but as a probabilistic, regime-conditioned scaffold. This work is educational; it is not investment advice.

Copyrights © 2026






Journal Info

Abbrev

economy

Publisher

Subject

Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media

Description

Focus Enigma in Economics focused on the development of economics and management sciences for human well-being. Scope Enigma in Economics publishes articles which encompass all aspects of economics and management sciences, especially all type of original articles, review articles, narrative review, ...