This study examines the influence of tax expense, bonus mechanism, tunneling incentive, debt covenant, and firm size on transfer pricing, with tax minimization as a moderating variable and profitability as a mediating variable, in consumer non-cyclicals sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2020–2024 period. The study is motivated by the increasing prevalence of transfer pricing practices in the consumer non-cyclicals sector and the inconsistent findings of previous research regarding the determinants of related-party transactions. The sample consists of 655 firm-year observations obtained from 131 consumer non-cyclicals companies selected using purposive sampling. Panel data regression with the Fixed Effect Model was employed to test the proposed hypotheses. The results indicate that bonus mechanism and tunneling incentive have a positive and significant effect on transfer pricing, while debt covenant and firm size have a negative and significant effect. Tax expense does not significantly influence transfer pricing. Furthermore, tax minimization moderates the relationships between bonus mechanism, tunneling incentive, and debt covenant with transfer pricing, but does not moderate the relationships between tax expense and firm size with transfer pricing. Profitability mediates only the relationship between debt covenant and transfer pricing. The model explains 85.19% of the variation in transfer pricing. These findings suggest that managerial incentives, ownership structure, contractual obligations, and firm characteristics play significant roles in shaping transfer pricing behavior, while profitability serves as a transmission mechanism through which debt covenants influence transfer pricing decisions in the consumer non-cyclicals sector.
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