<![CDATA[Production decision-making in agroindustry is often affected by raw material price fluctuations, which can influence production costs, profitability, and operational sustainability. Rumah Produksi Bersama (RPB) Kabupaten Batu Bara, as a chili paste processing industry, still determines production decisions based on a simple raw material price threshold without considering the quantitative impact on production feasibility. This study aims to develop a production decision model for chili paste based on sensitivity analysis of raw material prices. The research used a quantitative model development approach through observation, interviews, documentation, production cost analysis, and sensitivity analysis. The developed model integrates raw material cost analysis, total production cost, cost of goods manufactured (COGM), break-even point (BEP), profit margin, critical raw material price determination, and production decision rules. The results show that the critical raw material price is Rp35,806/kg, which represents the maximum price limit before the company reaches the break-even condition. The model generates decision rules where production is conducted when the raw material price is below the critical value, considered when equal to the critical value, and postponed when exceeding the critical value. The developed model provides a more objective and systematic decision-making approach compared to the existing system. This model can support RPB Kabupaten Batu Bara in managing production risks and improving adaptability toward raw material price fluctuations.]]>
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