<![CDATA[Objective: Indonesia faces a persistent aluminium supply deficit and heavy import dependence, while the mineral downstreaming policy drives domestic value-added processing. This study evaluates the financial feasibility and risk sensitivity of a planned 500,000 tonnes-per-year (TPY) aluminium ingot smelter at Industrial Estate “X”, Central Kalimantan, modelling its ROI dynamics through a system dynamics approach. Methods: A quantitative descriptive approach used secondary data over a 22-year period (2030 construction; 2031–2051 operation). Feasibility was assessed with five capital budgeting indicators (NPV, IRR, Net B/C, Payback Period, Break-Even Point) at MARR 10.14%, complemented by DuPont decomposition and a Vensim-based Causal Loop Diagram (CLD). One-at-a-time sensitivity analysis (±10–30%) was applied to alumina price and coal energy cost. Results: The project is feasible, with NPV of USD 2,285.66 million, IRR of 16.69% (above MARR), Net B/C of 1.761, and payback period of 6.16 years. Energy cost is 1.60 times more sensitive to NPV than alumina price. The CLD identified two reinforcing and two balancing feedback loops explaining ROI dynamics across the project's deleveraging phases. Novelty: This study extends prior alumina-stage feasibility research to the ingot-smelting stage and integrates sensitivity analysis with DuPont-based system dynamics modelling, a combination absent from Indonesia's aluminium feasibility literature.]]>
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